Vision Quest: Pre-Draft Roster Analysis: OFFENSE

Free agency is starting to wind down as does the cold and bitter days of March. The usual spending spree that the Redskin fans are accustomed to was absent. The biggest fireworks the Redskins seemed to muster were a replacement at Center, Casey Rabach, and a small wide receiver, David Givens, who happens to have 3 super bowl rings. The Moss for Coles trade and the departure of Smoot and Pierce have many fans looking for better days.

And now we come upon the draft, merely 5 weeks away. The guessing has already begun. Pick a cornerback, pick a wide receiver, trade down and get more picks, pick best available. The suggestions on the message boards and among the experts are varied and in many cases without any substantive analysis of the teams needs or the talent likely to be available.

A good first step when preparing for the draft is to establish where you are. Even in this relatively stable off season there are many changes that have taken place in our team. People coming back from injury and players maturing will always change your roster from year to year regardless of new players added or subtracted.

So with that in mind it is time to review the positions on Offense, Defense, and Special teams. This week we will focus on the Offense

OFFENSE

Overview: The 2004-05 season started with a bang for the Redskin offense. Early in the first game of the season Clinton Portis took an off tackle run 54 yards for a touchdown. Redskin fans were exuberant and immediately thought of the Glory days. However that dream was quickly ended. The Redskin offense performed poorly for most of the season, with very few bright spots. In deed poor quarterback play, line problems, play calling, dropped passes, and uninspired play dominated most of the season. The Redskins have set a priority of re-tooling the offense and acquiring the free agents to make it run properly. (Note players with an * bolded and in italics are new free agent pickups this year).

Position Analysis

Quarterbacks

Projected Starter: Patrick Ramsey

Notable Bench: Mark Brunell, Tim Hasslebeck

Analysis: This is Patrick Ramsey’s year. The chant has been heard on message boards and Redskin Park lately. And I agree it is Patrick’s year; I just don’t know what he is going to do with it. There is no doubt that the offense looked better under Ramsey then under Brunell. During the end of the year there were moments that made real believers out of some fans, only to be crushed the next game. For example after the second Giants game many were holding out hopes of a playoff spot, however this was dashed when Ramsey threw a red zone interception while driving for the winning touchdown against Philadelphia.
For the Redskins to get better Ramsey must mature in a hurry. He will be in his third year and will enter camp as the starter. Ramsey has the arm to be a successful quarterback. However his footwork and decision making needs to improve. The Redskin season will depend on Ramsey’s play and there is no plan B.
Mark Brunell will serve as the primary backup and Tim Hasselbeck is slated at the 3rd string. Brunell was just plain horrible last year. Many, including Joe Gibbs, blame some of his problems on the poor overall play of the offense, however even accounting for that it is unlikely Brunell will regain starting form. If Ramsey plays horribly the Redskins may switch to Brunell, which will signal another poor Season for the Redskins. Hasselbeck is probably our smartest QB, and definitely the one with the hottest wife, however he does not have an NFL caliber arm and is an emergency starter at best.

Draft Outlook: This is Ramsey’s year and a first day pick at quarterback is highly unlikely. However the Redskins would be smart to look at a value pick at QB in the 4th or 6th rounds. Ramsey’s contract runs through the 2006-07 season. It is unlikely that Brunell will remain on the squad past June 1, 2006. Whether Ramsey looks good or not the Redskins need to either groom a successor or prepare a rookie to be a backup QB. Whoever the pick will be would have to battle Hasselbeck for the 3rd spot or possibly be assigned to the practice squad for a year.


Running Back

Projected Starter: Clinton Portis

Notable Backups: Ladell Betts, John Simon, Rock Cartwright

Analysis: Clinton Portis came to Washington in one of the most sensational trades in franchise and NFL history. A rising star in the NFL many believed this would be the signature move of the Dan Snyder era. The jury is still out however, but not because of Portis. Portis put up impressive running numbers last year, 1315 yards & 5 tds. Portis came within 100 yards of the Redskin franchise record. He also contributed 40 catches for 235 yards and 2 more tds. Clinton did everything asked of him, he blocked he ran he caught passes and is one of the most supportive players of the Gibbs coaching staff.
There are lingering questions with Clinton though. For the third straight year Portis missed the final games of the regular season injured and unable to play. He also dropped from his career average of over 5 yards per carry to 3.8. Certainly poor line play can be blamed for the drop in production; however the injury bug leaves me to question his durability.
Ladell Betts did very well in spot relief and when starting the last game. On the season he had 371 rushing yards with a 4.1 ypc and a TD. Betts is a good changeup back from Portis. Betts is definitely a more straight ahead power blocker. He seemed to have solved his injury problem from the first two seasons as well. If the Redskins can incorporate a 70-30 mix with CP and Betts they can keep both fresh and low on the wear and tear. Betts should get more looks in short yardage situations as well.
Rock Cartwright served as 3rd string back all year long but only got 2 carries for 0 yards. Rock was the feel good story of the last training camp, converting from full back to play tail back in the Gibbs system, losing 20 pounds, and also overcoming his Mother’s death. We were all pulling for him to make the team and he did. There is no guarantee this year. He did play on special teams and that should help. John Simon spent the entire season on injured reserve. He has value as a kick returner and special teams player but is a long shot to make the squad.

Draft Outlook: This is probably the most complete unit on the team. I disagree that the Redskins need to draft a large back for short yardage situations. Improved line play and the emergence of Betts can fill that hole. If not, the Skins should look at Cartwright who led the league in 3rd and 1 conversions in 03-04. Also slow big backs can be found as a UFA. If the Redskins spend a draft pick on a RB then it is wasted and frivolous.


Wide Receiver

Projected Starters: Santana Moss*, David Patten*

Notable Backups: James Thrash, Taylor Jacobs, Darnerian McCants

Analysis: This squad had the most turnover in the off-season. Laveraneus Coles was traded in the off season for Santana Moss and Rod Gardner was allowed to seek a trade. So with both of last year’s starters gone there is a notable deficiency and a cause for concern. Even before the Coles trade the Redskins had identified this as an area of need and it would be addressed in free agency.
Enter David Patten. David has spent the last few years in New England collecting 3 super bowl rings. Last year he amassed 44 catches for 800 yards averaging 18.2 yards per catch. He will line up opposite Santana Moss, who had 45 catches for 838 yards averaging 18.6 yards per catch. The Redskins got smaller and faster at wide out in the hopes of taking advantage of the new NFL contact rules and connect on a few more homerun plays. No one can argue that either Patten or Moss is a replacement for Coles (although Coles injury made dilute his overall worth). However together they are an overall improvement in the wide out department.
Taylor Jacobs came on strong at the end of the season and should have the inside track as the #3 wide out. Thrash will be mainly a special teams player but will get rotations at wide receiver if nothing else for his veteran presence and precise rout running ability. The x-factor has to be McCants. DMAC showed promise in 03-04 however barely got on the field on 04-05. Whether it was bad practice habits, unwillingness to play special teams, or personality conflicts he sat most of the year. Gibbs has said McCants is in the plans for 2005. McCants is the last big strong WR on the team. I have said before he could be the phoenix rising from his own ashes of this season. HE could conceivably even battle for a starting spot. It will be in McCants hands, quite literally.

Draft Outlook: This may be the hardest position to decide the outlook on because the Redskins could do just about anything from making it their highest draft pick to not drafting one at all. The Redskins hold the #9 pick and it may be hard to pass up Mike Williams or Braylon Edwards if he is available. However with 5 wide receivers capable of filling roster spots on the team it could be viewed as a luxury pick. McCants and Jacobs have the most to lose if the team picks a wide receiver high. The team could also bring in a few UFAs to compete for a roster spot. In my opinion the Redskins would be better off addressing other needs with their draft picks but I could not blame them if they used #9 for Mike Williams if he is available.

H-Back

Projected Starter: Chris Cooley

Notable Bench: Mike Sellers

Analysis: Contrary to popular opinion, H-back and TE are not the same thing. H-back is a hybrid position combining fullback, tight end and wide receiver. Usually a smaller tight end with great receiving and moderate blocking skills with a great football IQ will fill this role. Chris Cooley is the prototypical H0back for the Gibbs offense. He is comfortable lining upon wide, as a 2nd TE, or in the backfield. He picks up blitzes, opens up holes for the running game and catch passes in the flats and on post routes. Cooley really came on strong at the end of last year and showed why Gibbs traded up to get him last year at the cost of this year’s 2nd round pick. Cooley will be the full time starter from day 1 of pre-season and could put up some decent numbers and be a favorite target in the end zone.
Mike Sellers is a bruising blocker who excels in the fullback portion of the h-back role. He could fill in for Cooley and even play with him in goal line situations. Sellers also excels on special teams, but has a perceived problem with personal fouls. If he becomes a mark for referees next year he could become a flag magnet.

Draft Outlook: There is no need to address this unit during the draft, and apparently no desire. Look for the Redskins to try and get a couple of smallish tight ends and larger fullbacks as UFA and convert them to H back to compete for the third string spot.


Tight End

Projected Starter: Robert Royal

Notable Bench: Dan Goodspeed, Jabrari Holloway, Kori Dickerson

Analysis: They all stink. Seriously this is the worst unit on the entire team and I refuse to be nice about it. At the beginning of last season the Redskins signed Walter Rasby as their TE. After proving he was a less then average blocker and terrible receiver they cut him loose and went with Robert Royal. Now I know there are a ton of Robert Royal fans out there because he caught a few touchdown passes down the stretch. This just shows you how pervasive fantasy football has become in our football fan base. TD catches are not the end all of receiving, and definitely not a stat you should judge the tight end position on.
To see how bad the Redskins are you must ask yourself this question “Would Robert Royal start on any other team in the NFL?” The answer is a “HELL NO!!!!!” Not only would he not start I would imagine he may not even make the squad on ½ of the clubs. He is a below average blocker and only an average receiver. Yes he caught 4tds, but he also only caught 8 catches total on the entire year. In fact he had no more then 1 catch in any game last year. That’s right folks. 1 catch a game.
If our starter is bad our backups are horrible. None of these guys would even make an NFL squad. Goodspeed is big but he was cut from training camp last year. Holloway was a cast off of Houston and has not played since 2003. Dickerson also has not played since 2003. In the Gibbs offense where tight end play is extremely important in both pass protection and run blocking this is not a good situation.

Draft outlook: I don’t know how the Redskins can not address this on the first day of the draft. Some say we are fine with Royal and we should get a “slobberknocker” TE late in the draft and rotate him. I just can not agree here. You need a full time starter who can block and catch. There is no better prospect out there then Heath Miller. Miller is a prototypical Gibbs type player. Smart as hell, can block (won offensive lineman of the week honors 13 times in his college career and is only a junior), and is a remarkable pass catcher. However taking Miller at #9 seems like a bit of a reach and The Redskins could explore trade down options, but not too low. Miller will go in the first round. IF Miller is not available we should look for a TE in the 3rd round that will take over for Royal full time.

Offensive Line

Projected Starters: Chris Samuels (LT), Derrick Dockery (LG), Casey Rabach (C)*, Randy Thomas (RG), Jon Jansen (RT)

Notable Bench: Ray Brown (T), Jim Molinaro (G/T), Mark Wilson (G/T), Lennie Friedman (G/C), Cory Raymer (C)

Analysis: This is a true rags to riches situation. Or at least it should be. Last year Jon Jansen’s season ending injury was a large blow to this offensive line. The unit’s most effective run blocker and psychological leader never played a down for the Redskins and was missed sorely. The offense was designed to run over Jansen’s side and impose their will, and it never recovered. Jansen has fully recovered from his injury and should be an unstoppable force this next season.
The RT position was not the only one in flux though. The Center position was under fire all year long. Lennie Freidman started at center and had snap exchange problems. Cory Raymer took over starting position ¼ of the way through the season. You remember Raymer don’t you? He was the first lineman on his arse after every play. Is it any wonder we were so horrible on goal line and 3rd and short situations? Enter Casey Rabach who played center all last year for Baltimore and helped anchor one of the best rush offense in the country. Rabach is a definite upgrade in the Center of the line.
Samuels played well and better do so again this year. He received the highest signing bonus in Redskin history this off season in restructuring his contract. Derrick Dockery showed flashes of brilliance last year and really needs to be solid this year to keep the coaches from re-examining the position. Randy Thomas played well despite little help to his right last year and could regain his pro-bowl form.
On the bench Wilson and Molinaro are young and learning. These are Bugle project players and could give solid depth this year. The Ancient Ray Brown is back and he is our security blanket. If he is starting though we are in trouble. Friedman and Raymer may become cuts if some young linemen appear in the draft.

Draft outlook: Look for the Redskins to address this unit in the second day in the draft. This is a perfect 6th or 7th round pick for a combo guard/center. If that happens watch for either Raymer or Friedman or both to be let go.