Vision Quest: The Fat Lady Has Not Sung Yet

OK I am an optimist.

It is real easy to give up on the season. It would be easy to criticize the coach for his play calling. It would be easy to blame the players for their lack of heart. Most importantly it would be easy to rant and rave about Daniel Snyder. And a lot of fans right now are taking the easy road. And on some level I can’t blame them.

I am not a stupid man. I am just as demoralized by our 5 game slump as any fan. And that is really what it is. The major media markets like to say it is an 8 game slide, but don’t you believe it. The Redskin team that played and lost against Denver and Kansas City is not the same team that is losing today. This slide started with the NY Giants trouncing. And save for a win against a weakened Philadelphia team, every opponent of the Redskins have been following the same game plan since.

And what game plan is that? When we are on offense opponents are rolling their safeties towards Moss and ignoring the opposite receiver. An athletic LB or even the other safety and assign him to Cooley to limit his effectiveness. Attack the While the other defenses don’t sell out to the pass, they definitely are not afraid of the running game following a soft bend but don’t break attitude. When blitzing go on our left side and make Samuels try and cover for Dockery’s. And most importantly go for the strip after a Cooley catch or a Portis run.

When we are on defense opponents are exploiting our lack of pass rush. Knowing that our front four, especially without Griffin, generates no pass rush they simply wait for our blitz package. In anticipation of the blitz they stay in and max protect, keeping a TE or RB, in to pass protect, and in many cases both. They wait for the blitz and pick it up. Any NFL QB can complete a pass with 5 to 6 seconds to throw the ball, even with only a two-receiver route. Not to mention Walt Harris giving every receiver a 15-yard cushion. Sure the Redskins could still stop the run but the opponent would wait for the inevitable Lemar Marshall in single coverage against a streaking WR to get a big play.

So why am I an optimist? Because despite playing the worst football this season over the last few games the Redskins have a very realistic shot at making the playoffs and all we need to do is win five straight games and get a little help.

See told you I was an optimist.

Seriously though this is not as undoable task as many fans seem to think it is. Sure it is an uphill battle, but good teams dig themselves out of holes. Great teams never get into the hole in the first place. We are not a great team. But we are a good team. And a good team can make the playoffs.

This squad is better then any Redskin squad since 1999. The team remains united and still believes in the Coach. They have built a team first squad and it can do some major damage if they remain united. The record may say 5-6 but it is not unreasonable to think the Skins can finish 9-7 or 10-6. And if they do they can put themselves in position to get into the playoffs.

If you look at the Redskins Divisional and conference schedule they re in a good position to win tiebreakers. Right now the Redskins are 5-2 in the NFC and 2-1 in the division. If they were to win out they would be 10-2 in the NFC and 5-1 in the division and able to win any tiebreaker scenario against either divisional opponents or wild card rivals. However the Redskins also need a little more help.

The other divisional opponents (NY Giants and Dallas) and the Wild card rivals (Tampa Bay and Atlanta) are all 2 games ahead of us at 7-4. Worse off the Giants and Tampa Bay hold head to head tiebreakers against us. However there are ways, reasonable ways to win both the Wild Card and the Division.

First the Division. Ironically this may be the easiest way to the playoffs for the Redskins. It goes without saying that the Redskins must win the final five games for this scenario. But in doing so the Redskins will deal a loss to both the Giants and the Cowboys. And today the Giants and Cowboys will face each other and one of them will come away with another loss. In addition both the Cowboys (Kansas City, @ Carolina) and the Giants (Kansas City, Oakland, @ Philadelphia) have games left they can lose. Personally I am rooting for Kansas City to show some Indian love to their brethren on the east coast.

The most likely scenario for the Redskins would be a 3-way tie for the division at 10-6. The Redskins would then have a 5-1 division record and win the division as the Giants and Dallas at best would be 4-2. Thus giving the Redskins the divisional win. This is the easiest path to the playoffs and with the most reward, a home playoff game.

Second the Wildcard. This is a little harder because of the head to head with Tampa but it is still mathematically possible. Here we have 4 realistic suitors, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Minnesota, and the loser between Dallas and the NY Giants. Tampa has the hardest road to the playoffs and they are the worst team. Looking at their remaining schedule they have trips to Carolina and New England and a home game against Atlanta and both divisional games against New Orleans. I see at least two, maybe three losses in those opponents. Atlanta plays Carolina twice, at Chicago and Tampa Bay and one game against the Saints. Again Atlanta could lose 3, maybe 4 games here. Minnesota has less margin of error but has an easier schedule. They play @ Detroit and Baltimore, and have St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Chicago at home. There is at least one loss in the Pittsburgh game and Chicago may get them as well.

The biggest obstacle is the head to head loss against Tampa. Remember if the Redskins win out the Giants loss will not be a factor. The only thing the Redskins have to do is make sure that they do not get into a head to head tie with Tampa Bay for the last wildcard spot. The more likely scenario is that there will be three or more teams tied at 10-6. And that is where the divisional records come into play. If all the above teams finish with a 10-6 record their best NFC records would be as follows: Dallas 9-3, Tampa 8-4, Minnesota 8-4, New York 8-4 & Atlanta 7-5. The Redskins, if they win out, would be 10-2. They would win any multiple ties and any straight up head to head except for Tampa. With two spots open the Redskins could also go to 9-7 and have a reasonable shot at winning a tiebreaker and getting in. As long as the tiebreaker is not a head to head against Tampa or in the case of a second loss to the Giants and Dallas still winning the NFC East.

So the chances are there but you have to take it one week at a time. So here are the relevant games for the Redskins this week:

Washington at St. Louis: Obviously. A Redskins win is vital and a loss will put a nail in the St. Louis playoff hopes.

Atlanta at Carolina: Got to hope for Carolina here. A divisional win for Carolina is a big time help to us.

Dallas at NY Giants: Either way we win. I guess because of our head to head some would hope for Dallas to win. But If the Redskins win out and they must the head to head won’t make a difference. There is a part of me that realizes that I rather have the Giants win the division then the Cowboys, which would make the Wild Card race easier, especially if we lose to the Giants again, or one more game. Either way I am hoping for massive injuries. Either way we win here.

Minnesota at Detroit: A win by Detroit will sink the Love Boat II. But it is not likely. Still I am rooting for the Lions to do something.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Go Saints. I root for the Saints every week but it is usually futile. It is probably futile now. But I can hope damnit.

Those are the matchups that will help the Redskins. But the most important thing the Redskins have to do today is win. Just win. Everything else will fall into place.

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