Playoff Rooting Card: 1 Down, 5 to go

Well a great week for the Redskin playoff chances as virtually ever thing that needed to happen, happened. Of course that started with Washington beating Carolina in one of the best all around games the Washington defense played all season. Carolina remains at 6-5 but we now own the head to head tiebreaker over them. Joining them at 6-5 are the hapless self destructing NY Giants who defied NFL history to lose to Tennessee despite having a 21 point lead with 10 minutes to go. St. Louis beat San Francisco, bringing both their records to 5-6. Joining them at 5-6 are Philly who lost to Indianapolis, Atlanta who lost to New Orleans, and Minnesota who beat the hapless Arizona Cardinals. Green Bay is the other sap at 4-7 after losing to Seattle hoping for a miracle comeback to get into the playoffs.

The only disappointments were Minnesota beating Arizona and Atlanta beating New Orleans, neither of which are major disappointments. New Orleans is at 7-4 and we will have to hope they go on to win the NFC South crown. Arizona is the worst team Minnesota plays down the stretch and more then likely will lose two more of their remaining schedule.

However the most improbable hurdle of all still remains for the Redskins, and that is winning 6 in a row to close their season. Last year’s team did win 5 in a row in the regular season and one more in the post season so we know it is possible. And for the first time the Redskins play last week actually justified a small glimmer of hope for the Redskin faithful. Finally a complete game was put together and it looks as if Jason Campbell is for real at QB. Lets hope we can get the same performance in every game down the stretch.

If the Redskins win this next week I am going to devote next week’s article to tiebreaker scenarios. With 5 games remaining there are simply too many permutations to really go into. I sincerely believe the tiebreaker scenarios are very important as the odds that we will be the ONLY 9-7 team in the NFC is just not very likely. In fact in 2005 there were 4 9-7 teams, 2 in each conference, none making the playoffs. In 2004 there was only 1 9-7 team and it was a division winner (oh the NFC West what a pitiful conference you are). In 2003 only 1 as well, and it did not make the playoffs. However in 2002 there were a whopping 6 teams and this is the last time a 9-7 team made the playoffs as a wildcard. If a 9-7 teams makes the playoffs I think there will be some ties to break.

Let’s assume Dallas (7-4) will win the NFC East, Chicago (9-2) will win the NFC North, New Orleans (7-4) will win the NFC South, and Seattle (7-4) will win the NFC West. So here is how we stack up against each of the wildcard contenders. Remember all scenarios are provided that we win out and go 9-7:

NY Giants (6-5): This is one of our biggest foes and one of the two the teams I would not want to be tied with. If we win out we will split the head to head tiebreaker. The NY Giants though have a 5-2 NFC record, compared to our 2-5 NFC record. If both of us were tied at 9-7 there is no way we would have a better record in the NFC, so the Giants would win that tiebreaker. The same goes for the division record (in case with a team in another division we are in a 3 way tie you must apply the division record first to the two teams in the same division). It is almost imperative NY goes 8-8.

Minnesota (5-6): The other team I am afraid of. Minnesota owns the head to head tiebreaker over us. We cannot end up tied to Minnesota straight up or we will end up losing. Green Bay could beat them in a divisional tie though and then we would beat Green Bay head to head.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-6): This is another team we need to go 8-8 and not be tied with at the end of the season. Luckily we can help them out by beating them when they come to our place two weeks from now. If we beat them and the Eagles win every other game to remain tied with us they will own the tiebreaker with a better NFC record (currently they are 4-3). And like the Giants they would win any division tiebreaker as well. An 8-8 or worse finish would be good here.

Carolina (6-5): We own the head to head tiebreaker against Carolina by virtue of beating them last week. We need them to lose two more games, but if they do we will own the tie-breaker over them.

Atlanta (5-6): We can take care of them this weekend by virtue of beating them. We will then own the head to head tiebreaker.

St. Louis (5-6): We can take care of them when we face them on Christmas Eve. We would then hold the head to head tiebreaker and give them the one loss they need to assure a tie at 9-7.

San Francisco (5-6): This is the trickiest team. We do not play them so no head to head record is available. They have a 4-4 NFC record but have one game remaining against Denver. If they lose that game but win all others they will beat us with a better conference record. Losing one of the other 4 games would assure us of having the same NFC record. It would then go to the common game tiebreaker (NO, MN, PHI, STL). If that one loss comes next week to New Orleans then we own the common game tiebreaker (Was 3-2 SF 2-3). If not it goes to the strength of victory tiebreaker and I have no clue how that will play out until near the last week of the season.

Green Bay (4-7): Green bay would have to win out just like us. If they do we would have an identical conference record. It would then go down to common games (NO, MN, PHI, STL) and there we would have a better record (Was 3-2 GB 2-3) and own the tiebreaker. They really aren’t a threat to us anymore but could come into play in three way ties with Minnesota.

So keeping those tiebreakers in mind here is your playoff rooting card for this week:

Arizona (2-9) at St. Louis (5-6): Don’t really care because as I said, we own St. Louis if we beat them. But just for fun let’s root for Arizona to beat them and rattle them a little. Go Cardinals!!!!

Atlanta (5-6) at Washington (4-7): Let’s show Vick where to put his finger. As always, Go Skins!!!!

Minnesota (5-6) at Chicago (9-2): Chicago can clinch its division and help us out at the same time. Go Bears!!!

NY Jets (6-5) at Green Bay (4-7): Just in case Minnesota ends up 9-7, I want Green Bay to end 9-7 with them. That would most likely result in Green Bay beating them in the division tiebreaker. In that case we would then beat Green Bay in a head to head tiebreaker. Oh what a tangled web we weave, that Minnesota loss really complicates things. Go Packers!!!

San Francisco (5-6) at New Orleans (7-4): A win for New Orleans here will help us with any head to head tiebreakers with San Francisco. Also it will give New Orleans some breathing room in the NFC South and maybe help us steal one in their place later on. Go Saints!!!

Dallas (7-4) at NY Giants (6-5): this is the most disgusting part of having to root for other teams and not controlling your destiny. It means sometimes teams you can’t stand have to win. That is the case with the Cowboys. I usually root for the meteor when our NFC East opponents play, but in reality we need the Cowboys to win here. Go Cowboys, you sons of a ***censored by Spence***.

Carolina (6-5) at Philadelphia (5-6): This is a no win, no lose situation. A win by Carolina would give us control of Philly’s destiny, but then we would need Carolina to drop 2 of its last 4. A win by Philly would get Carolina one step closer to the dreaded 7 losses, but Philly would need to lose 2 of its last 4. But since we play Philly one more time and I think Philly is the weaker team, I am rooting for the upset here. Go Eagles!!!!

So that is it, as complicated as it is. Hopefully if we win and a few of these things happen we will have a clearer picture of where we are this time next week.