Vision Quest: Redskin Draft Day Strategy

I don’t believe in mock drafts. I don’t. I like reading them mind you, but I just don’t think it is an accurate prognostication of how Draft Day will play out. A variety of transactions can happen including player for player trades, moving down, moving up, draftee swaps, and trading future picks for current players. The best you can do going into the draft is to have a plan. So with that in mind I decided to lay out a draft plan for the Redskins if I were the GM.

Overall strategy

Over the last 3 weeks I have analyzed where we are as a team and knowing our holes we can now move forward with the draft. I have surmised there are four glaring position needs of the Redskins. In order they are TE, DC, DE, and WR. However the Redskins may not actually address all these needs in order. Talent, depth, and player availability will make the Redskins change on the fly. For the Redskins to have a successful draft then they must address these four positions in the draft, and preferably before the end of the third round.


Goal#1: Trade Down

Sounds simple but it may not be so. The number 9 pick is not nearly as valuable this draft as others. But with 4 positions of great to moderate need and only 2 picks in the first round it is imperative we get this done. Recent developments may have opened up our options. Lavar’s second surgery now makes it “feasible” that the Redskins can take Derrick Johnson or Shawn Merriman if both Antrell Rolle (Miami) and Adam Jones (W. Va.) are drafted. And even if Mike Williams (USC) and Braylon Edwards (Michigan) are gone we could pick Troy Williamson (S. Carolina) and it would not be considered a stretch at WR. This feasibility is a big thing in getting the best value at trading down.

There are several viable trade down options. But I think the most plausible trade down situation that gives us the most value for our pick is trading our number #9 for the Vikings #18 and #49. This will allow the Vikings to get Mike Williams (USC) at #7 and Derrick Johnson (Texas) at #9. They have a ton of cap room and these are their two biggest wholes. They instantly upgrade and replace Moss and help their beleaguered defense at the same time. Washington drops a bit, saves on a big contract, and picks up a second rounder.

Goal#2: Selection after trade down

Wherever the Redskins trade down to they should probably select the best talent available. In my mind that is Heath Miller (Virginia) at TE. Miller immediately becomes a starter and allows us to fill our last remaining need on offense. Other possibilities are Carlos Rogers (Auburn) at DC, Mark Clayton (Oklahoma) at WR, or Erasmus James (Wisconsin) at DE. I would entertain further trade downs but we won’t see a repeat of the 2002 draft where multiple trade downs can net multiple picks. The talent drops off after selection #7 and stays pretty constant until the middle of the second round.

Goal#3: Second Round Selection

Any trade down scenario should result in a second round pick. This pick should balance out what is selected in the first round. If Offense is selected, such as TE or WR, then Defense should be selected here. And vice versa. If we are looking at defense here you need to select the top rated DC or DE on the board, possibilities include Justin Tuck (Notre Dame) and Chris Canty (Virginia) at DE and Eric Green (Va. Tech) and Corey Webster (Louisiana State) at DC. If you are looking at offense then possibilities Reggie Brown (Georgia) and Roscoe Parrish (Miami) at WR and Alex Smith (Stanford) at TE.

Goal #4: Trade Gardner for a Third Rounder on Draft Day (or before)

Another goal that may be easier said then done. However when the teams make their accustomed run on WR in the second round all of a sudden Gardner for their third might not look like a bad idea. By the end of the second round this should be able to be done. Tampa Bay may take a bite at Gardner and the same with San Diego if they miss out on a WR in the first couple of rounds. Pittsburgh could be a trading partner as well. This may be the best 3rd round draft in recent memory. So getting a 2nd pick in this round is crucial.

Goal#5: Using the Third Round Picks.

With two of the four needed positions taken care of in the first round, it is time to look at the other two. By the end of the third round we could address all of our needs and then be able to speculate with the final 3 picks we have. So here are a few possibilities for each of the four positions we need:

WR: JR Russell (Louisville), Courtney Roby (Indiana)

TE: Kevin Everett (Miami), Tony Jackson (Iowa)

DE: Jovan Haye (Vanderbilt), George Gause (S. Carolina)

DC: Ronald Bartell, Jr. (Howard), Stanley Wilson (Stanford)

Goal#6: 4th Round Get a QB

If all our needs are addressed before now, this is a great time to take a project at QB. This guy should be willing to battle for 3rd string this year and maybe sit on the practice squad. Then next year after a year of learning the system he can battle for backup next year and if Ramsey falters possible succession. Stefan Laflors (Lousiville) may be the perfect prospect here. He can add depth to the QB corp and push Brunell next year and maybe even Ramsey. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Harvard) should be on our radar as well.
Goal #7: Offensive line help at #5 & #7

Getting a young interior offensive lineman at the remaining picks will give us added depth and youth along the line. These youngsters can figth it out with Raymer and Freidman to make the roster and give Bugle another couple of young guys to pare with Molinaro and Wilson from last year’s draft. It’s too far along in the draft to look at prospects but a guard and a center is needed here or a couple of combo guys. Tackles are all set with Molinaro Wilson and Brown continuing backup roles. Another Possibility is a young DT to try and make the 4th DT spot. If someone of real talent drops to 5 we could go there.

Backup Plan #1: No Trade Down Partner

Like any plan you must have a backup. The plan hinges upon the trading down of our first pick and it is possible that no one will give up enough to make it worth our while. So if no one is willing to trade up to #9 we will have to pick their. My position on this has always been consistent. If one of our four main prospects, Edwards, Rolle, “Pac-Man” Jones, or Mike Williams then you got to either select them or try and trade down. So if no trade down partner is present you have to select one of those four.

If all four are gone, which is extremely possible, and no trade down partners are present then we have to look at Shawn Merriman, Troy Williamson, or Heath Miller. I think Miller would be the best choice but Williamson is the more likely choice here.

Backup Plan #2: No Trade Partner for Gardner

Gardner is in a “gots to go” situation. IF he is not traded here, try and trade for future picks. Otherwise he is a June 1, 2005 cut. My guess is there are a few fourth round offers out there and we should take one of them near the end of the third round if we can not get rid of Rod before then. No lower though, and no lower then a third next year if future picks are offered. Otherwise let him hit the market and get the full cap savings of a June 1, 2005 release.


So that is it. That’s the plan. Just 10 days to go till the draft and a ton can change. But this is the best case scenario for making our team better this year and for years to come.