Vision Quest: And with the 53rd selection of the 2006 NFL Draft the Washington Redskins should take…..

Here we are on the eve of a National holiday, the NFL Draft. Have you ever stopped and wondered at just how big modern football has become. Each year the NFL draft is aired, in it’s entirety over two days on ESPN and ESPN2. Hours of white haired fellows sitting around tables and periodically someone goes to a microphone and announces a name of a soon to be very rich young athlete.

And we watch every minute of it.

If you ever doubted football was king then just remember this. The American public would rather watch the NFL off-season then the NBA postseason. If I was David Stern I would implore the NFL to move the draft a month earlier or his playoffs a month later.

So with that in mind, with the 53rd selection of the 2006 NFL Draft the Washington Redskins should take…..

Cedric Griffin, CB/S Texas

Ok what the heck am I thinking? Haven’t I been the guy telling you we need to pick an outside linebacker at #53? Wasn’t I the guy imploring the redskins to keep Lavar Arrington because his backups were all scrubs? Didn’t I lament the resigning of Warrick Holdman and described Chris Clemons as too raw to start in the NFL?

The answer to all those questions is of course yes. So what happened to change my mind? No, Dale Lindsey did not break into my house last night and whisper sweet nothings into my ears. And Chris Clemons is not actually holding a gun to my head as I write this. So why am I doing an about face on this? Simply put Cedric Griffin will not only fill the most needs on our Redskins squad but most likely will be the best player on the board when #53 comes around.

As is my custom here are the top 5 reasons I think the Redskins should consider Cedric Griffin.

1.) The Redskins don’t have the firepower to move up. As we have discussed here before the Redskins do not pick until late in the second round, the 53rd pick of the draft. While there is some talk the Redskins will move up, I still believe that they won’t. Not that they don’t want to mind you, who wouldn’t. But they just do not have the firepower to move up significantly without mortgaging the future. And even if the Redskins were willing to part with next year’s first & second along with this year’s 53rd pick, they could barely crack into the bottom ten of the first round. In this writer’s opinion there just won’t be a pick talented enough to give up 3 picks for within the Redskins reach.

2.) Griffin is a two for one special. Cedric is projected to play both corner and safety in the NFL. The Redskins happen to have need at both positions. Griffin’s versatility will give flexibility to the Redskins' lineup. With the addition of Griffin the Redskins could keep as few as 8 players in the defensive backfield instead of the customary 9 or 10. Those unused roster spots can be used to beef up places like the Offensive and Defensive line which needs a plethora of bodies.

3.) Griffin will see the field often. The selection of Griffin will mean he will be penciled in as the team’s fourth safety. He will battle Pierson Prioleau for the 3rd safety spot and Kenny Wright and Ade Jimoh for the nickel and dime corner positions. He is talented enough to win playing time at all three of those positions. Griffin is a physical db that prefers to jam receivers at the line but can turn and run with them as well. His ability to come up and support the run is prototypical of a Williams’ corner and with Springs getting up there in years Griffin could be groomed as an eventual replacement. With the Redskins offense in gear it is possible that the Redskins will go with more multiple DB sets as teams are passing trying to come from behind.

4.) Injuries common in the Redskin defensive backfield. Sean Taylor, Pierson Prioleau, Shawn Springs, Carlos Rogers, & Adam Archuleta all lost a game or two last season due to injury. Even if Griffin does not win the nickel corner job, he will play in many games this year because injuries will bump everyone up the depth chart. Springs and Arch in particular have a high frequency of injuries in their past and Taylor usually does something stupid in a season to get suspended for a game or two.

5.) Sean Taylor’s trial still a question. Speaking of doing something stupid. If Taylor’s trial had been resolved perhaps Griffin is not the pick here. But it hasn’t, in fact it has been suspended indefinitely. Do I believe Taylor is going to get convicted? No. But the Redskins have to plan ahead. And if he does end up eventually pleading to a misdemeanor he could face some kind of suspension from the league. Pierson Prioleau is the natural fit to step into Taylor’s shoes in a short term situation. However Griffin can push Prioleau for the starting job and fill the all important third safety role as well.

This is not a given and to be fair I would be very happy with Rocky McIntosh LB Miami and Thomas Howard LB UTEP at the second round selection. But all things considered I rather get the safety out of Texas and solidify our defensive backfield.

Now for the rest of the draft. The Redskins have needs at the following positions listed in order of need: OLB, S, CB, O-line, TE and can use competition at Punter. The selection of Griffin solves the S and CB positions. Unlike the first day I am actually advocating and expecting some type of moving up to get selected players. Look for the redskins to package some or all of their 6th round picks to move up either within rounds or maybe into the 4th to get selected players. Here is the break down of what I would do with the Redskins remaining 6 picks. .

5th Round pick #153: OLB. If the Redskins go safety in the second round, the Redskins have to go OLB in the 5th. An interesting prospect is Rob Ninkovich DE out of Purdue. Many analysts are thinking Ninkovich will convert to OLB in the pros and Joe Gibbs took the time to do a formal interview with him at the combine. He may be gone by the 5th so perhaps one of the 6ths could be packaged in a move up to get him.

6th Round picks 173, 189, and 196: TE & OT. I don’t expect the Redskins to use all three of their 6th round picks as at least one or two will be used in a move up packaged with their fifth pick. But if they are available look for the Redskins to select a TE and one or two offensive tackles in this round. A TE of interest is Jason Pociask out of Wisconsin. He could battle with Robert Johnson for the last TE spot on the roster and if he doesn’t make it he can spend a year on the practice squad. He has talent and could be a great project for Gibbs. A guy the Redskins should look at its Quinn Ojinnaka out of Syracuse. He has the frame and the fundamentals to be a spot starter and solid backup in the NFL, but he needs to hit the weights to be effective. No place like Redskin Park to do that with.

7th Round picks 230, 250: Punter. Again I am not sure both picks will be here but since they are pretty worthless they probably will be. In either case the comp pick at #250 can not be traded according to NFL rules. With one of these picks I think the Redskins should look at giving Derrick Frost some competition at Punter. Luke Johnson out of Southern is a solid punter with a good leg and actually knows how to punt near the end zone. He can also do kickoffs. If he beats out Frost, great. If not wasting a 7th round pick is not a high price to pay. With the other pick the Redskins should look at getting the best player available excluding WR, QB, and RB.

Onto the draft my friends. Kick back and relax it is going to be a long day, but at the end of the weekend we will be a better deeper team. Of course next week I will look into the draft picks and project their role with the team.

Until then Hail to the Redskins!!!

Vision Quest: A Tale of Two Draft Days

The Redskins are on the verge of the 7th draft of the Snyder era. However this year is a little different. There is no Draft Day party at Fed Ex where Coach Gibbs will helicopter in with our first round pick in tow and address 10,000 fans willing to wait hours just to find out who the newest player to play in the B&G. No big press conferences will be scheduled Monday May 1st to introduce that player. No it is pretty quiet in Fed Ex.

Because the Redskins will not pick until #53 in the 2nd round this year.

We have already had our fan fare in free agency, and it is a good thing too. Sure the Redskins have 6 picks in this year’s NFL Draft, but after pick #53 the remaining five are #153 or worse. While it is not out of the realm of possibility the Redskins could move up into the first round by trading next year’s first and second and this year’s second. it is doubtful they will do it.

This writer is very worried about this year’s draft. Sure we have only one major hole at outside linebacker to fill and there will be talent at the 2nd round pick to fill it. (And if you think Holdman is the answer at OLB, go watch the Denver or Kansas City Game a few times and come back here and say that again.) The Redskins though have various needs for solid depth on the Offensive Line, Tight End, Linebacker, Corner, and Safety.

Normally a team would use it’s first day picks (Rounds 1 -3) to acquire starting level talent and reserve their second day picks (Rounds 4-7) for depth. There are exceptions to every rule. First day QBs can start out as depth and transition to starting level in later years, like Campbell. Some players can be passed over on the first day and become starters like Robert Royal. The third round is a crap shoot where some starting talent in some positions can still be found like Cooley and Dockery.

Unfortunately the Redskins have not followed that plan and their draft days have become a tale of two days. The first day picks they have done quite well getting players who at least on some level contributed at a high level on an every game basis. According to my subjective analysis only one player, Taylor Jacobs, can be labeled a true bust, and two others, Lloyd Harrison and Rashad Baumans, were picks that did not pan out.

The second day picks have been utterly horrendous for one reason or another. While you can not expect all of these players to be world class players, you can hope that at least half of them will be contributing players in some fashion or another. They have gone whole drafts without what I call a “Contributing Selection” from the 2nd day.

What is a “Contributing Selection”? Well I am making this up, but I do have logic behind it. It is a subjective term based on where the draft pick occurred. Simply put if you are selected on the first day of the draft you should be a starter for the Redskins for at least a couple of seasons and play adequately. If you are selected on the second day at the very least you should provide adequate depth for several seasons. By this measure Taylor Jacobs is not a Contributing Selection because he was a first day selection and failed to adequately turn into a starter. While Darnerian McCants is a Contributing Selection because he provided adequate depth for several Redskin seasons before leaving for Philly.

So I took some time to analyze each of the drafts that occurred under Daniel Snyder’s watch. Here are my results. The bolded players are ones that I deem as Contributing Selections.

2000 Draft Class

1st Day: LB Lavar Arrington (1), OT Chris Samuels (1), DB Lloyd Harrison (3),

2nd Day: OG Michael Moore (4), S Quincy Sanders (5), QB Todd Husak (6), DT Delbert Cowsett (7), WR Ethan Howell (7)

Analysis: The Draft that paved the way for all the others. Great phenomenal first day picks in Lavar Arrington and Chris Samuels, and scrubs who barely made the roster, and even rarer contributed. Odds are the only Michael Moore you have heard of is a chubby filmmaker. Quincy Sanders needs a detective to find out where his NFL career went. Who’s Todd Husak? A washout that’s who. Delbert Cowsett is now ironically in an office job. Ethan Howell doesn’t even deserve mentioning….ooops I did.

2001 Draft Class

1st Day: WR Rod Gardner (1), CB Fred Smoot (2)

2nd Day: QB Sage Rosenfels (4), WR Darnerian McCants (5), DT Mario Monds (6)

Analysis: Again 2 starters in Rod Gardner and Fred Smoot on the first day, but barely anything on the 2nd. Sage Rosenfels was a reach at 4 and could have been picked at 6 if we wanted him. D-Mac contributed a little before his music career clouded his work ethics. Mario Mounds wins the award for best name of the no names we draft on the second day.

2002 Draft Class

1st Day: QB Patrick Ramsey (1), Ladell Betts (2), CB Rashad Bauman (3)

2nd Day: WR Cliff Russell (3), DB Andre Lott (5), TE Robert Royal (5), OT Reggie Coleman (6), LS Jeff Grau (7), DE Gregg Scott (7), RB Rock Cartwright (7)

Analysis: Solid 1st day once again getting a starter in Patrick Ramsey and a solid depth and sometimes starter in Ladell Betts. However Spurrier’s first year in the league showed that he had no idea when it came to drafting talent ion the late rounds. Robert Royal eventually became a starter before leading the Skins this year to have fist fights in Buffalo, but that was more because of a lack of talent at the position. Andre Lott started a few games but succumbed to injury and was released (He just signed with the Chargers after being out of the NFL). Rock Cartwright has been solid depth and special teams and was the steal of the 2nd Day for the Redskins. For all the trading down we did to pick up draft picks none of them really contributed. Of the others only Rashad Bauman is still in the league playing sparsely for Cincinnati.

2003 Draft Class

1st Day: WR Taylor Jacobs (2), OG Derrick Dockery (3)

2nd Day: QB Gibrad Hamdan (7)

Analysis: Worst Snyder Draft Ever. First they trade away all their picks to acquire the entire Jets football team, and then on the ones they do have they pick incorrectly. Taylor Jacobs in the 2nd has been the best practice worst game receiver in Washington and most likely won’t be here after this year. Hamdan was another waste of a pick in the 7th. The only thing that saved this draft is Derrick Dockery. Sure he is the weak link of the offensive line but he has started every game since coming into the league, and at least he is progressing.

2004 Draft Class

1st Day: S Sean Taylor (1), TE Chris Cooley (3),

2nd Day: T Mark Wilson (5), T Jim Molinaro (6)

Analysis: Sean Taylor was a no-brainer here and one of the best high draft picks in the Snyder era. Gibbs wisely moved up to take Chris Cooley in the third, but Mark Wilson was cut last year and Jim Molinaro is on the brink of being cut this year. It can be argued these two tackles lack of development has led directly to losses in the next two years when major injuries have decimated the offensive line.

2005 Draft Class

1st Day: CB Carlos Rogers (1), QB Jason Campbell (1)

2nd Day: FB Manuel White Jr. (4), LB Robert McCune (5), LB Jared Newberry (6), FB Nehemiah Broughton (7)

Analysis: Another typical Snyder draft. Carlos Rogers is the real deal and is a wonderful selection. Jason Campbell is the QB of the future and will compete for backup spots this year. This may go down as the worst 2nd day in Redskin history, and at the very least the Snyder era’s worst. Manuel White spent last year on injured Reserve after a sub par pre-season. Robert McCune spent most of the season on the practice squad until he was promoted because of injury. Jared Newberry was let go on the first day of cut-downs. Nemo has a great nickname but spent the entire season as the 4th running back and was inactive in all but two games.


By my admittedly subjective standards the results are thus. On the first Day the Daniel Snyder Redskins have had 14 selections and 11 of them have turned out to be Contributing Selections. In fact two of the busts were corners taken in the third round which can often be risky. This is superb and the Redskins should be congratulated for getting this right. Many other teams in the league would envy this kind of consistency in these high draft picks and it is a testament to Snyder and Cerrato’s scouting. In fact the weakest year, 2001 (Gardner and Smoot) where a direct result of Marty Schottenheimer’s control as opposed to Snyder or Cerrato’s wishes.

The second day though is uhm…not so good. I feel I have been VERY liberal with some of my selections (Andre Lott, D-Mac) and even then out of 22 picks I can only find 4 picks I would label a Contributing Selection. Shaq has a better chance of making a free throw blindfolded then we do of getting a good football player on the 2nd day of the draft.

So what you say? We have Gibbs now and he will get things into shape. Think so huh? In 2004 Gibbs did a good move to trade up for Chris Cooley. But the two Offensive Tackles that were supposed to provide depth are pretty much busts. Mark Wilson was cut from the squad after one year and Jim Molinaro is fighting for his job this year. In 2005 it only got worse. None of the player’s drafted last year contributed in any major way, and 3 out of 4 were not on the opening day roster. Nemo made the squad but was inactive and 4th on the running back list.

These results are the real reasons we always seem to be short of depth. It is simply to expensive to get decent depth in the Free Agent market and the 2nd day is the draft is the only way in today’s NFL. Our poor performance has had direct results on the field. We leaned on the 40+ year old Ray Brown when we hade line injuries over the past couple of years but if we had a young Guard/tackle type that panned out we could have used them when Brown went down in both 2004 & 2005. When our corners were injured the last two years we were depending on former UFAs late in the season when wins games were on the line.

And now the Redskins have 5 picks 5th round or lower and depth is badly needed in the Safety, O-line, Tight End, Corner, and Linebacker positions. Call me crazy but I am not betting that we will cover those positions finding gems in the 2nd day. Not unless we do a better job at evaluating and developing young talent.

And if we don’t you better pray for health to our Redskin starters or we could see a repeat of the last two years.

EDIT This article was edited to reflect the fact the third rounds is on the first day of the draft, not the second.

Vision Quest: The State of the Redskin Defense and Specialists Pre Draft 2006

Last week we analyzed the Offense and this week it is Gregg Williams turn under the microscope. Indeed many, including this writer, would say the most important move the defense could make was the resigning of Gregg Williams to a 3 year contract extension making him the highest paid assistant in the NFL. Snyder also reached into his checkbook to give raises to his entire staff retaining all but one coach from a staff that has turned in top 10 defenses two years in a row.

How do you replace the defensive backfield coach who left? If you’re Danny Snyder you go out and sign Jerry Gray, the former Defensive Coordinator in Buffalo. Gray joins current Defense Coordinator Greg Blache and Linebacker coach Dale Lindsey as former defensive coordinators willing to serve as position coaches under Gregg Williams in DC. They have everything coaching wise a defense could ever want.

They also return 9 of the 11 starters from last year’s team. 8 of those have been starters for both of Greg Williams years here in DC. The Argument can be made that the defense has more talent on the field this year with Adam Archuleta replacing Ryan Clark in the Safety spot and Adam Carter likely to replace either Wynn or Daniels at Defensive End. However there is one loss that they have yet to recover from.

Lavar Arrington

Now you did not think I could do an Analysis of the Defense without mentioning the former Redskin at least once. He may have been a whiner, he may have been injury prone, he may have been out of shape and he may not have been worth the money he was being paid. The fact remains that the Defense was better with him in the lineup last year then when he was out of it. He stopped the run and prevented the constant 2nd and shorts seen when his replacement Warrick Holdman (often seen on his back while being blocked by a wide receiver) was in the ball game. The redskins also have chosen not to resign Holdman leaving a gaping hole at the weak side linebacker that may or may not be filled from within. Lavar’s locker room leadership will be missed as well and many players will be looking for a leader to step up to the plate.

Enter Marcus Washington.

Washington has been the best defender wearing a Redskin uniform the last two years. He earned the only pro-bowl bid for the Redskins in 2004 and followed it up with an even better 2005 despite being snubbed by the pro-bowl. He recorded 11 tackles in Philadelphia to get us into the playoffs and had an all world game against Tampa (12 tackles, INT, FF, FR) to help us advance. He is the perfect leader for the defense and his teammates respect him. He led our team through Lavar’s injury filled last couple of years with quiet workman like dignity and can be the leader that a whole team can coalesce around.

Let's see what kind of squad Marcus Washington will be leading onto the field on 9-11-06.


Defensive Line
Projected Starters: Andre Carter, Joe Salave’a, Cornelius Griffin, Phillip Daniels
Notable Bench: Renaldo Wynn, Demetric Evans, Nic Clemons, Cedric Killings, Aki Jones, Ryan Boschetti

Analysis: Can one addition make an entire unit into a strength when it was a weakness last year? Maybe. And Maybe Andre Carter is the guy to do that with the Defensive Line. Andre Carter’s insertion at the Right End spot should add the pass rush missing out of the front 4 the last two years. Currently the other end will be manned by Phillip Daniels who improved as the year went on. Cornelius Griffin returns to man one of the middle spots and may be the MVP of the group. His very presence on the field increases the play for the entire line. The biggest head in football, Joe Salave’a will start at the other tackle as well. This means for the first time in his Redskin career Renaldo Wynn, one of the best DE’s against the rush in the NFL, will be on the bench. He will see a lot of time rotating in at both ends and both tackle positions. Also rotating in will be Demetric Evans who returned to the Redskins after failing to secure a starting spot somewhere else. Cedric Killings will provide depth on the inside and Nic Clemons may be used in definite pass situations or could be fighting for a roster spot along with Ryan Boschetti and Aki Jones.

Draft Recommendations: The signing of Carter and the moving of Wynn to the bench upgrades the pass rush and our depth at the same time. Demetric Evans signing gives us even further depth. I can’t see doing anything with this unit, unless a really high rated Defensive Tackle drops into the 5th round. Otherwise we are not only set with the starters, we are deep and should be able to generate a pass rush with our front four.


Linebackers
Projected Starters: Marcus Washington, Lemar Marshall, Chris Clemons
Notable Bench: Khary Campbell, Robert McCune, Jashon Sykes

Analysis: Marcus Washington is the best defensive player on the team and easily mans the strong side Linebacker position. Last year Lemar Marshall converted to MLB and should stay there this year, calling out the plays for the entire defense. Chris Clemons emerges as the front runner to replace Lavar Arrington at weak side linebacker. He has height and speed, but is recovering from an injury that ended his season last year. Khary Campbell is a special team’s stud and will back up Lemar at the Mike. Robert McCune also plays special teams and has converted to the outside linebacker but is too raw to count on for anything more then spot duty. Jashon Sykes used to start at Will for Denver, but spent last year out of football and there may be a reason for that.

Draft Recommendation: If any position is to be targeted in the 2nd round, it is this position. Chris Clemons may or may not be the answer at replacing Lavar. If he is not, then we need a young guy that can come in, learn the system, and compete for the starting job. If he is, then we desperately need depth at the outside linebacker in case Clemons or Washington do down. I seriously think the Redskins will draft the best remaining OLB at their 2nd round pick (#53). It will be the only competition for a starting position anywhere on the team. The Redskins have shown interest in John Alston, Demeco Ryans, and Rob Ninkovich (DE but may convert to LB) in recent days and will probably pick one of those 3 if they are available at #53.


Defensive Backs
Projected Starters: Shawn Springs, Carlos Rogers, Sean Taylor, Adam Archuleta
Notable Bench: Pierson Prioleau, Kenny Wright, Ade Jimoh, Dimitri Patterson, Christian Morton, Curry Burns

Analysis: The possible combination of Adam Archuleta and Sean Taylor at safety should make wide receivers quake anytime a crossing route is called. That is provided that Sean Taylor’s oft delayed assault trial is finally resolved. Archuleta is a bigger faster version of Ryan Clark and will be laying out some punishment as well as being better in run support. Shawn Springs and Carlos Rogers will be our guys on the corners again this year. Roger’s impressive rookie season will serve as a springboard to NFL stardom while Sean Springs continues to resurrect his career with his gutsy play. Pierson Prioleau will back up both safety spots and will start if Sean Taylor can not. Kenny Wright looks to be the prototypical corner for a Greg William’s defense and will be a big upgrade over Walt Harris. Ade Jimoh showed improvement on defense last year as well as excelling in special teams and should easily lock down the 4th corner spot. Dimitri Patterson and Christian Morton came in late last season and more then likely will fight it out for the 5th remaining corner spot along with any draftees or UFAs. Curry Burns spent the entire 2005 season on the team’s practice squad and will try and make it as the team’s 4th safety.

Draft Recommendation: The team is pretty much set at corner, but depth at safety is an issue. With Arch’s injury issues and Taylor’s possible forced relocation to a Florida zip code that lack of depth could be a problem. Taking a combination player, like Texas’ Cedric Griffin would be a great move in the 2nd round. However we are most likely using that pick to address the OLB spot. This probably means that in the later rounds a Safety prospect will be drafted, probably in the 6th. If a talented corner drops into the 2nd day that can compete with Wright for the nickel slot we should look at them also.


Specialists
Projected Starters: John Hall (K), Derrick Frost (P), Ethan Allbright (LS)
Notable Bench: Tyler Jones (K)

Analysis: Is it me or am I the only one who does not know what the hell Danny Smith, special team’s coach for the Redskins, is thinking? Take Punter for example. Sure last year he is stunned by Tupa’s unexpected loss, but Andy Groom seemed to be doing fine. However Smith went out and got Derrick Frost who proceeded to punt balls into the end zone on a regular basis as well as shank them at inopportune time. One of the supposed reasons we went and got Frost is because he could do kickoffs for our injured kicker John Hall, yet Frost only performed this feat in one game. While Hall was injured we signed Nick Novak, who had some big kicks for the Skins in crucial games. Coach Gibbs publicly stated that we would probably keep two kickers the entire year, but again Smith did not like him so he was cut. The reason, Novak could not do kickoffs. Arizona then signed Novak to kickoff exclusively. The team has now said that Frost will handle kickoffs this upcoming year so Hall can perhaps remain injury free. I personally would like to see what Tyler Jones can do, who lighting it up in NFL Europe. The only good thing Smith has done is continue to find a home for Ethan Albright, one of the best long snappers in the league. He does his job so well that you never hear his name called, and that is just fine with me.

Draft Recommendations: I am begging the Redskins to bring in real competition for Derrick Frost this year and take a good look at Tyler Jones at kicker. I am not sure that there is anyone in the draft that can help us out, but if a high rated Punter is still sitting there in the 7th round we should look at giving them a shot. If only Danny Smith will give them a true shot as well. Perhaps we can draft a real special team coach instead.


The Defense has the coaches and leaders to improve on the last two year’s performance. If they can fill what holes are remaining, avoid injury or jail time, and mesh the new parts, they can improve on the feats over the last two years. If not there will be holes for the other teams to exploit, and they will eventually find them.

Next week I plan to look at our recent draft history, including a focus on our 2nd day draft failures and after that I will give my annual Draft Day Strategy for the Redskins targeting a few players in each pick for the Redskins to take.

Until then Hail Redskins!!!

Early 2006 game by game predictions

I admit it is way too early to be making predictions.....but I like doing things ealy. Last year I predicted 106 with a wild card playoff birth, of course I did not predict a sweep of the Cowboys or a 5 game win streak to get into the poost season. With the schedule out and the draft yet to happen here are my predictions for 2006.

Sep 11 Minnesota 7:00pm: WIN Gibbs teams have won the last two openers and Minnesota will be outmatched in Fred Smoot and Brad Johnson's return to Fed-Ex.

Sep 17 @Dallas 8:15pm: LOSS Going to be hard to beat Dallas in Dallas two years in a row and on a short week nonetheless.

Sep 24 @Houston 1:00pm: WIN David Carr is going to get pummelled and Reggie Bush is going to wish he had a 6th year of eligibility.

Oct 1 Jacksonville 4:15pm: WIN Jacksonville was the most overrated team in the playoffs last year. Mark Brunell will light up his old team.

Oct 8 @N.Y. Giants 1:00pm: LOSS Pierce and possibly LaVar will be too much for us and the redskins have played like crap in the meadowlands the last two seasons.

Oct 15 Tennessee 1:00pm: WIN Matt Leinart will learn dancing with Gw's defense is not the same as ballroom dancing class.

Oct 22 @Indianapolis 4:15pm: LOSS I just don't see us having the corners to hang with their wide receivers...yet. It can change but playing on the road versus one of the best pass offenses in the league is trouble. Don't worry we will get our chance at revenge on this.

Nov 5 Dallas 1:00pm: WIN We avenge our earlier loss by smacking the boys around. Our bye week will have us rested and ready to go.

Nov 12 @Philadelphia 1:00pm: WIN Philly is going to take another year to adjust to the whole TO debacle. They did nothing this year to improve their team, but get older.

Nov 19 @Tampa Bay 1:00pm: WIN Tampa will come out hard because of our playoff beat down of them last year, but they will be overmatched and Taylor will hit Chris Simms so hard he will wish his Dad was sterile.

Nov 26 Carolina 1:00pm: WIN Carolina has a good team, but not a great team. Keyshawn should be working his morale magic on the team by then as well.

Dec 3 Atlanta 1:00pm: WIN Michael Vick can run, by why when Taylor and Archuleta are out there waiting for you?

Dec 10 Philadelphia 1:00pm: LOSS Smells like a let down game. Yoiu can't win every game and Philly will want revenge.

Dec 17 @New Orleans 1:00pm: WIN Maybe Tags will let us host this game in FedEx...uhm nope. We will sew up a playoff birth with the win.

Dec 24 @St. Louis 1:00pm: WIN Ironically we will look more like the St. Louis team that won the Superbowl then they do. Archueletta looking wants a big game for his return home.

Dec 30 N.Y. Giants 8:00pm: WIN With the NFC East and a 1st round playoff on the line Fed Ex will rock and the Redskins will beat the Giants into a pulp.

Final Record 12-4 NFC East Champ 1st Round Bye (Seattle gets homefield because of their weak arse division)

POST SEASON Redskins host the divisional game and beat whoever they play. They go on the road to Seattle again, but this time beat the Seahawks to go into the Super Bowl. Indy awaits them and The redskins avenge their earlier loss and win the Superbowl.

After the season Brunell retires, Gibbs resigns from Coaching to be team President and GW takes over. Saunders will probably get a HC gig elsewhere, probably San Francisco.

I am going to put this on the blog as well so it is saved for posterity.

Vision Quest: The State of the Redskin Offense, Pre-Draft 2006

The Redskin fans got a lot of their wishes in Free Agency this year. Once the CBA was extended the Redskins were allowed to spend freely and move on players they wanted early on. And though we have seen dizzying Free Agency shopping sprees under the Snyder era, none have been as good as this year.

You say we are undermanned at Wide Receiver and need another starting quality player to draw attention away from Santana Moss? How about two in Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El (who also fills a desperate need in the return game). Defensive line a problem? Ok how about Andre Carter. Starting TE has left to the land of mullets and cows? Enter Christian Fauria with his three Super Bowl rings and solid work effort. So your starting safety won’t resign with you? No problem we will get Adam Archuleta who is ten times better and has an incredibly hot girlfriend as well.

And those are just the big signings. Smaller signings will play tremendous roles this year. Todd Collins (QB) will teach Brunell and Campbell the Saunders offense. Mike Pucillo and Tyson Walters add reserve offensive line depth. Kenny Wright will compete for the nickel corner spot. That along with quality resigns in Rock Cartwright, Demetric Evans, Ade Jimoh, Derrick Dockery, Khary Campbell, Chris Clemons, and Cedric Killings keeps intact the hear and soul of the team.

So where are we now? Sure we have added nine new players, at least seven will see significant playing time this year. Where are the holes that need to be filled? Are there any? Where do we go to fill them?

The Draft is the obvious answer to the last question. While the Redskins have six picks in the draft, don’t be fooled, there is not much help coming. Having traded our first and fourth round picks this year for Jason Campbell and our third round pick to bring Brandon Lloyd to town, the Redskins are left with just one pick, their 2nd round (#53), in the first four rounds of the draft. A couple of trades (Ramsey and Gardner) have netted us two additional 6th round draft picks and the NFL gave us a lonely 7th round compensatory pick for our Free agent loses last year.

That’s 5 picks #153 and below. Barring a trade up of some kind you are not talking about a lot of starting quality out there. Many of these players, if our own history is any indication, will not make the squad or perhaps spend a few years in a reserve role at best. You have a better chance at finding Osama Bin Laden in your bathroom then a ready to start player below the 5th round.

So the Redskins have to be selective in their picks. But to do so we need to know where we are. So I will now go through our team position by position and try to identify our strengths and needs to formulate a Draft Strategy for April 29th (and more importantly April 30th). I will list projected starters, notable bench, analyze each position, and make a draft recommendation. The plan is to do the offense this week, the defense next week, and the week of the draft I will post my recommended draft strategy.


Quarter Back
Projected Starter: Mark Brunell
Bench: Jason Campbell, Todd Collins

Analysis: Mark Brunell will return as the starter after one of the best years of his career in 2006. Sure he turns 36 in September and broke down due to injury last year, but he is the best option the Redskins have to make a serious Super Bowl run this year. Coach Gibbs made one of the best pr moves of the off-season stating Jason Campbell will fight for the backup QB spot. Make no doubt about it; this was done to protect Brunell from harsh pre-season criticism. As soon as Patrick Ramsey was traded for a 6th rounder to the NY Jets it made sense that Campbell will serve as the primary backup, and eventual successor to Mark Brunell. As a Backup Campbell can take valuable pre-season snaps and Gibbs has said he will cut down on the in-season work of Brunell, which means Campbell will get valuable time with the first unit. Todd Collins comes over from KC, following Saunders, and will act as a mentor for both Campbell and Brunell to teach them the nuances Saunders will add to the Redskin’s offense this year.

Draft recommendation: Don’t bother even looking at a QB in the draft. Hell, don’t even bother looking at change in case you might see a quarter.


Running Back
Projected Starter: Clinton Portis
Notable Bench: Ladell Betts, Rock Cartwright, Nehemiah Broughton

Analysis: All Clinton Portis has done since coming to the Redskins is put together two of the finest back to back rushing seasons in Redskin history. Last year he set the all time rushing record for the Redskins yet some still say they rather have another back. Excuse me? Listen Clinton Portis is spending at least 8 years in DC, just like the last Clinton to come through town, and possibly the next. He is tough, fast, a great locker room guy, and also an asset in the front office. Ladell Betts is serving his final year in DC. Everyone should appreciate him. He will be starting somewhere else next season but for now he can spell Clinton and provide excellent Depth. Rock is a special team stud and will not a bad third option in a pinch. I am hoping Nemo shows makes a run at being the big goal line back that he was drafted to be. If not it is his last year in DC.

Draft recommendations: If Reggie Bush freefalls to #53 or the Texans offer us to trade up to #1 for a stick of bubblegum and a bag of footballs, maybe, maybe we take him. Other then that the Redskins will avoid running backs like Basic Instinct 2, it may have been a good idea 10 years ago, but not now.


Wide Receivers
Projected Starters: Santana Moss, Brandon Lloyd
Notable Bench: Antwaan Randle El, David Patten, James Thrash, Taylor Jacobs.

Analysis: Only Joe Gibbs and Daniel Snyder can take a glaring weakness in the off-season and turn it instantly into an incredible strength. Will them and $60 million dollars. Brandon Lloyd will pair with Santana Moss and opposing defense will not be able to roll coverage to either side of the field. Randle El will be the ultimate weapon coming off the bench playing in the slot or spelling either Moss or Lloyd on a couple of series a game. David Patten may just be the best #4 wide receiver in the league. James Thrash almost has the #5 spot locked down because of his special teams play. Taylor Jacobs needs a miracle to survive the cut at the end of the year, or an injury to someone else.

Draft Recommendations: Again the Redskins have no need to draft a WR at all. They are not only deep but talented and our top three WRs should create mismatches in any defensive set.


Tight Ends and H-Backs
Projected Starters: Chris Cooley (H-Back), Christian Fauria (TE)
Notable Bench: Robert Johnson (TE only), Manny White (H-Back only), Mike Sellers (Both)

Analysis: In Gibbs system, which will be tweaked not discarded by Al Saunders, you need two starting caliber TE players to be effective. One to play H-back, a hybrid TE/FB position, and the other a more traditional TE. Chris Cooley is a prototypical H-back player. He can run routes from either on the line, split out wide, or in the backfield. He can sustain blocks on the line or at a running start. The loss of Robert Royal and addition of Christian Fauria alone upgrades the TE position. Fauria not only brings improved blocking but he is an underrated sure handed receiver. But Fauria is 34 and has been injured before. Depth is an issue here. Mike Sellers can adequately backup Cooley and comes in on occasion to run block or catch the opposing defense sleeping for a TD catch or two. Robert Johnson has a lot of potential but is extremely raw. Manny White, well I am still trying to understand this pick. He seems to be a younger less talented version of Cooley and was having trouble adjusting to the H-back role before his season ending injury last year.

Draft Recommendations: The TE position is deep in this year’s draft, but I don’t see a big need to try and move up into a first day pick for this position. What we need is a young TE to serve as depth and eventual starter. Using our 6th round picks in an attempt to move into the 4th round could be advisable, if there is a player that Joe Gibbs sees that he likes (ala Cooley in 2004).

Offensive Line
Projected Starters: Chris Samuels (LT), Derrick Dockery (LG), Casey Rabach (C), Randy Thomas (RG), Jon Jansen (RT)
Notable Bench: Jon Alston (T), Jim Molinaro (G/T), Ikechuku Ndukwe (G), Mike Pucillo (G/C), Tyson Walter (G/C),

Analysis: This is another unit that had depth issues last year that Gibbs and Snyder seemed to have solved in Free Agency. The front five are all set and will have a second year of continuity to get used to each other and build upon their solid performance last year. Chris Samuels and Jon Jansen, the bookend tackles, should have a shot at going to the Pro-Bowl next year, and Randy Thomas at right guard always plays at a high level. Casey Rabach was a big improvement from Cory Raymer at Center. Derrick Dockery needs to prove himself this year though. He improved over the course of the season, enough for the Redskins to tender him at the high option. However this being a contract year he really needs to shine to get the big payday he wants. With Ray Brown retiring and Cory Raymer being cut the inside reserves are very thin. Enter Mike Pucillo and Tyson Walter who can play both Guard and Center. Holdovers Jon Alston and Jim Molinaro will backup the Tackles and Ikechuku Ndukwe, who was active the last few games, will fight for the remaining roster spot.

Draft Recommendations: At first glance this looks pretty set. Pucillo and Walter started last year and should be available in spot start duty. Alston and Molinaro have had 2 years under Joe Bugel to back up the tackles. However there is not one reserve I would be comfortable with if a long term injury happens to one of our linemen. That is today’s NFL though. I would look for a gem in the 6th and 7th rounds to push the reserves and possibly to be a practice squad player, just in case.

Next week is the Defense and Special Teams.

Hail Redskins!!!