Vision Quest: Pre-Draft Roster Analysis: DEFENSE

In an effort to assess our draft needs I am continuing my positional analysis of the current Redskin roster. This week I am focusing on the Defense, having done the offense last week.

DEFENSE

Overview: This was the lone bright spot of an otherwise dismal 6-10 campaign last year. Despite no help from the offense for many games the Defense shined, despite trading all-pro cornerback Champ Bailey in the off season. Greg Williams not only had to deal with poor field position and being on the wrong side of the time of possession clock, but also the season ending loss of Mike Barrow in Mini-camp and the minimal participation of Stud linebacker Lavar Arrington and newly acquired defensive end Phillip Daniels. However his blitz schemes and the emergence of young players like Sean Taylor and Antonio Pierce and newcomer Marcus Washington, Cornelius Griffin, and Shawn Springs more then made up for their losses. In fact despite 6 one time or projected starters going down for most of the season, the defense ended the season as the 3rd ranked defense in the league, and one of the best defenses in Redskin history. The off season has not been kind to Greg Williams for the second year in a row as fan favorite Fred Smoot (CB) and the team defensive quarterback Antonio Pierce (MLB) has left for greener pastures. So far no real off season pickups however the return of injured players from last year and another year in the Greg Williams scheme should make our defense even stronger this year.(Note players with an * bolded and in italics are new free agent pickups this year).

Position Analysis

Defensive Tackles

Projected Starters: Cornelius Griffin, Joe Salave’a

Notable Bench: Brandon Noble, Ryan Borschetti, Cedric Killings

Analysis: Cornelius Griffin was arguably the best free agent signing for the Redskins last year. Many experts considered him to be washed up after a promising rookie year just 3 years earlier. Griffin revitalized his career in Washington as well as the defensive line play. He occupied blockers allowing our linebackers record the tackles on occasion and many times did the job himself recording 96 tackles (66 solo) and 6 sacks. That is a remarkable number of solo tackles for a defensive lineman. Griffin should of made the pro-bowl last year however was only selected as a fourth alternate in a travesty of judgment.
The other tackle was manned down by a rotation of Brandon Noble and Joe Salave’a during the early part of the season with Salave’a winning the spot by mid season. Salave’a was another Williams reclamation project and it worked. He recorded 30 tackles (22 solo) and two sacks while starting nine games for the Redskins. More importantly Joe occupies blockers well freeing up our linebackers to attack the offense with abandon.
Brandon Noble provided solid backup after coming off a devastating injury the year before. He is a big defensive tackle and another year back from injury will allow him to contribute even more this year. Ryan Borschetti is a versatile lineman even starting one game at defensive end last year when injuries piled up. Cedric Killings spent provides depth, but that is about it.

Draft Outlook: It is hard to see that the Redskins will address this position in the NFL draft. The Redskins most likely will stand pat and wait for June 1st cuts to address any backup issues. If the Redskins even look at this area it will be in the 6th or 7th rounds and only if a talent drops down that should have been drafted earlier


Defensive Ends

Projected Starters: Renaldo Wynn, Phillip Daniels

Notable Backups: Ron Warner, Demetric Evans, Nic Clemons

Analysis: Another season and another group of underperforming unheralded defensive ends. The group as a whole did not do too bad last year, but they also did not do anything spectacular. Those of us that hated watching Bruce Smith’s last year with the Redskins and his pursuit of the sack record appreciate these no nonsense group of veterans that just try and get the job done. Renaldo Wynn is once again slated to start at one of the ends. But that is nothing new as Renaldo has recorded three straight seasons of 16 game starts and started a total of 111 of 121 games in his career. He is not a feared pass rusher but is a consistent tackler and recorded 58 tackles and 3 sacks this last season. He will never be a dominant end but he is Mr. Consistency as well as a great locker room guy.
The other end will be manned by Phillip Daniels, if he can remain healthy. And that is a big if. He only played and started in only 5 games last year. However when he was in he was a force in the pass rush. He only had 8 tackles (5 solo) and 1 sack but often times collapsed the pocket enough to allow one of our linebackers to make the sack or at least force the incomplete pass. If he can stay healthy he could provide some needed pressure on the outside.
Ron Warner and Demetric Evans each saw time last year when Daniels went down. Evans was the more consistent of the two appearing in 12 games starting 8. He recorded 31 tackles (15 solo) and 2.5 sacks. He will be the primary backup to either end in case of injury. Warner recorded 17 tackles (9 solo) 3.5 sacks, one forced fumble and one interception appearing in 14 games and starting twice. He is more of a pass rushing end and could see a lot of time in nickel packages replacing Wynn or moving him inside to tackle. This is a make or break year for Chris Clemons after spending 2 years on the practice squad. He has decent pass rushing skills and could be part of a nickel package alignment if he can make the squad.

Draft Outlook: This position is the most in need of improvement on the entire defense. The team tried to address this need with the pursuit of Courtney Brown, but they were unsuccessful. The question is whether there are any defensive ends out there worth picking at #9. It is more likely the Redskins will either draft a defensive end in the 3rd round to compete for the backup spots or trade down for #1 and pickup a defensive end late in the first round. If the trade down option happens then Erasmus James and Dan Cody have to be strong candidates to compete for a starting job.

Linebackers

Projected Starters: Lavar Arrington, Mike Barrow, Marcus Washington

Notable Backups: Lemar Marshall, Clifton Smith, Khary Campbell

Analysis: Does the projected starting unit look familiar? It should it was the same this time last year. However Mike Barrow never recovered from a knee injury and didn’t play a down for the Redskins. Greg Williams converted Antonio Pierce from an outside Line backer to the middle linebacker position and bam a whole was filled. Lavar Arrington went down with an injury and only played in 4 games last year and bam in steps Lemar Marshall. Marcus Washington comes here from Indy and dominates. The linebacker position was one of the deepest and best units for the Redskins all year.
However this year Antonio Pierce is gone. So what does Greg Williams do? Right back to the same game plan. They are rehabbing Mike Barrow in preparation for him to start. They also resigned Lemar Marshall and he is moving to the inside position as well. This could be a great move for both the Redskins and Lemar. Lemar is a bit smallish for the inside being a converted safety. However in starting for Lavar he recorded 82 tackles (52 solo) and 1.5 sacks and excelled in pass coverage. Even if Barrow wins the job, Lemar could see time in nickel packages.
Lavar Arrington is coming back from injury and the Redskins need him. Although the pass rush was adequate last year without him, it was not dominant. Lavar was very frustrated with his missed time last year and should come back with a vengeance this year. On occasion he will line up at end and on occasion he will drop back in pass coverage and disrupt the crossing routes. However look for Lavar to be blitzing a lot more this next year looking to stuff the run as well as take the quarterback’s head off.
Marcus Washington can only benefit from one more year in the Williams system. Last year he piled up 130 tackles (102 solo) and 4.5 sacks. He was the sole Redskin Pro Bowl representative and deserved all the honors bestowed upon him. He rates as one of our best free agent acquisitions of the Snyder era. Marcus can rush the passer, stop the run, and cover the pass. More importantly he plays the strong side and frees up Lavar to freelance on the weak side. He is the ying to Lavar’s yang and could well be the rock that Williams builds his defense around this year.
Clifton Smith will compete along with Lemar Marshall for the Middle linebacker spot. He is an imposing linebacker and could surprise many people in pre-season. It was thought he would battle for the starting spot last year before he got injured. Chris Clemons showed flashes of speed and pass rushing ability last year recording 3 sacks late in the season. He could get time in passing situations. Khary Campbell is a great special teams player and could see some reserve work at either outside linebacker spot.

Draft Outlook: There are some that say the Redskins will try and replace Antonio Pierce in the draft. I just don’t think so. This draft is weak when it comes to line backing prospects and the Redskins have needs at other places and not a lot of picks. Williams will probably either convert Lemar or go with Barrow to fill the hole at MLB. If anything look for the Redskins to sign a few UFAs to compete for roster spots.

Cornerbacks

Projected Starter: Shawn Springs, Walt Harris

Notable Bench: Garnell Wilds, Rufus Brown, Ade Jimoh. Roosevelt Williams

Analysis: The loss of Fred Smoot hurt this unit greatly. Not because Fred Smoot was the great of a cornerback but because of how Williams uses the position. Corners are left on an island to allow safeties and linebackers to blitz on a regular basis. The Williams defense does not need shut down corners to be effective but they do need capable corners.
Shawn Springs is the perfect candidate for the Greg Williams defense and showed that last year. Replacing Champ Bailey he made good on his promise to make the fans forget the old #24 and welcome him as he piled up 89 tackles (56 solo), 5 interceptions, and 6 sacks. He has the size to cover the big receivers and the speed to cover the small ones. He also is adept at blitzing as he led the team in sacks as well as interceptions.
The job of replacing Smoot falls to Walt Harris. Walt recovered from a devastating knee injury in the off season and served as the nickel back for the Redskins compiling 21 tackles (12 solo) and two interceptions. He also contributed on special teams. The word on the street is that it takes two full years to recover from the knee injury he had so he should be back to top form this year. Before the injury he was a decent cornerback for Chicago and Indianapolis when he was in his prime. At the very least he will serve as a temporary veteran starter to allow the youngsters time to grow.
Garnell Wilds comes into camp as the favorite to play nickel back. His claim to fame is his dreadlocks and the fact that Randy Moss did not dominate him in the last game of the season. Don’t get me wrong, he is good and has the size and speed of a Williams type corner. But he is unproven. If he has a good camp he could eventually win the starting Corner Back opposite of Springs by the end of the year.
Ade “sure thing” Jimoh got better last year but is primarily a special teamer. Rufus Brown spent a lot of time on the practice squad and has some raw talent that could develop. Roosevelt Williams has a lot of experience but spent last year out of football. He will try and resurrect his career as a backup in training camp and could win a roster spot.

Draft Outlook: It sure is hard to argue that the Redskins could use a stud at CB opposite Springs. And there is nothing wrong with drafting a cornerback this year to groom for next year as well as Harris and Springs are both getting up there in age. If Rolle or “Pac Man” Jones are still on the board at #9 the Redskins may have to pull the trigger on one of them. Carlos Rodgers is also a possibility if a trade down scenario develops. However just as likely is taking a corner in the third round.

Safeties

Projected Starters: Sean Taylor (FS), Matt Bowen (SS)

Notable Bench: Andre Lott, Pierson Prioleau, Ryan Clark, Pat Dennis, Jason Doering

Analysis: This is a talented and deep group of players. After starting the season with Lott and Bowen at the two safety spots. Taylor finally broke into the starting squad and Bowen went down to a season ending injury. Lott came off the bench to start again and then he went down to a season ending injury. Finally Ryan Clark came in to finish the season. And throughout all this turmoil safety play remained at a high level.
Sean Taylor is the reason for that. Selected at #5 in last year’s draft this kid really impressed the Redskin faithful. Sure he has hired and fired more agents then Kristie Alley on a comeback tour, but boy can this guy play racking up 89 tackles (62 solo), 4 INTs, and 1 sack. Speed of a safety body of a linebacker. This might be the best draft choice of the Snyder era and he can only get better. He is the starter from day one this year and will be an intimidating presence to receivers coming over the middle (yeah Pinkston I mean you).
Matt Bowen finally showed the promise he had when popping trung candidate a few years back in training camp. With Taylor in the backfield Bowen can play strong safety and blitz more often and be free to support in the run game, which is his strong suit. Coming back from injury he will need to prove he has not lost anything. But his versatility should win the day and a full season of Taylor and Bowen will give any wide out nightmares on Saturday night.
Andre Lott played exceptionally well before his injury and even held Taylor on the bench for the start of the season. Lott is a converted CB and could find himself going back there in nickel and dime packages. Ryan Clark started the second half of the season after coming close to being cut and filled in adequately. Prioleau should excel on special teams and fill in spot duty at Safety. Pat Dennis and Jason Doering are mainly special teams players and emergency backups.

Draft outlook: If we spend a draft choice on this unit it would be severely wasted. We have 4 safeties capable of starting and several capable backups on top of that. This unit is pretty set and I doubt it will be addressed either day of the draft.

Washington's Possible Trade Down Partners

A lot of fans out there, myself included, believe that Washington should trade down from the #9 pick . And sure it is easy to say, but it is not always easy to do. The Redskins have to find the right trade partners the right scenarios for this to work. I thought it might be helpful to look at a few trade down scenarios that the Redskins could come up with. For these trade scenarios it will depend on who is available. For any of them to work one of the four players we are targeting, Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams, Antrel Rolle, or Adam Jones must be available. These are most likely draft day scenarios.

#14 Carolina Panthers Carolina needs to replace Muhammed and might be willing to jump up to #9 for a chance at Williams or Edwards. The question is with picking at #14 they could easily grab Troy Williamson if both of the top receivers are gone. Will they give up their second (#45 overall) to move up? Possibly but more likely only their third (#79 overall).

#15 Kansas City Chiefs Kansas needs help at Corner and when #9 comes up either Rolle or “Pac Man” will be available. But the Chiefs need help at defensive end also and may not give up their second (46 overall) for a move up when they go after Carlos Rodgers or a host of DE here.

#18 Minnesota Vikings Why would Minnesota move to #9 when they already have #8? Because they have a lot of wholes and alot of salary cap room that is why. This would allow them to grab a top receiver (Williams or Edwards) and a top Defensive End (Merriman/Cody) or a top Linebacker (Derrick Johnson) and really shore up their squad. It would be worth giving up their second (49 overall) to get two instant starters. This is the one scenario where the dependence of our four targeted players does not come into play. It also is the one scenario that could be done before draft day.

#22 Baltimore Ravens Yes they added Derrick Mason, but they need a WR starting opposite them. If Mike Williams is available it could be worth the move up. Finally Billick will give Boller some targets to throw to. Giving up their second (#53 overall) might be worth the shot at a top flight WR instead of hoping for Williamson and/or Clayton to drop into their laps.

#23 Seattle Seahawks Losing Ken Lucas hurts and a shot at Rolle or Jones will tempt the hawks to move up. Their second (#54 overall) could be the price to do it. Whether they got the salary cap space to do it is the issue here.

#25 Denver Broncos Another team hurting at CB. With the Brown signing that is where they should be looking at Rolle or Jones. Their 2nd (#56 overall) is ripe for the picking.

#26 NY Jets Cornerback is a big need for the Jets. We just dealt them the Toe why not work with us again? Again Rolle or Jones should be available and they have a 2nd (#57 overall) that is ripe for the picking.

#27 Atlanta Falcons Getting repetitive yet. Another team needing a corner. With Carlos Rodgers and Fabian Washington more then likely going to be gone by this pick they might want to trade up to get one of the top guys at the position. They have a #2 (%9 overall) for Washington.

#28 San Diego Chargers There is a lot of money invested in quarterback in San Diego. But who are they going to throw to? There is already rumors of them trading to go to #1, but how about Williams at #9? Again Williams has to be available. San Diego would have to give up their 2nd (#61 overall) and something else though since they have no third. Perhaps a future pick (Snyder thinking about the future? Get out!)

#30 Pittsburgh Steelers We are getting a little low here but Pitt might want to make a huge jump. They need to replace Plaxico and have no chance at a top flight receiver at #30. I think they would have to give up their 2nd (#62) and their 3rd (#93). They could also go for a CB for the future but trading up to do so does not make sense.

#32 New England Patriots The champs would love to add a young CB to their squad. But I am not sure they have the firepower to do so. I also don’t know if the Redskins want to go this low. However if Rolle and/or Jones is available and the champs wanted to give up their 2nd (#64 overall) their 3rd (#100 overall).

Hey Chump....meet Mr. Taylor

Word out of the Broncos training Camp is that Champ Bailey is once again flapping his gums at the Bronco staff to play wide receiver. Now mind you Champ has done this before. His obsession with playing wide receiver dates back to his Georgia days where he caught a couple of screen passes. His over blown sense of impoortance has never let him forget it. He tried to let every coach in Washington give him a chance at trying out the offensive side of the ball.

So Champ has just received word that Randy Moss is now in his division and he is going to play him twice a year and guess what, he is talking offense again. If I was the Bronco’s head coach I would be locking Champ into a film room and tell him not to come out until training camp.

Champ had a horrile year in coverage for his new team and any time wasted even thinking about offense. Oakland has Moss and Porter, Kansas City always has a dangerous passing attack, and San Diego has Drew Brees is going to want to prove he is worth his franchise tag. That is just in their division let alone other games like Philadelphia, New England, NY Jets, Dallas, NY Giants and yes even our Redskins who all have upgraded their passing offense significantly in the last year.

Now I know that I am hard on Champ. I blame him for Smoot’s departure and a few posts ago I speculated he could easily become the most hated ex-redskin out there. However Champ needs to stop focusing on adding to his skills and perfect the ones he has. The Broncos schedule is tough and their division is a passing one. Offense is a fantasy that he just can’t afford to dream of right now.

That being said I really hope that they try and throw a few screen passes over there we we go visit them. I am sure Taylor and Lavar would love to take a shot at Champ shortly after the ball hits his hands. Maybe it will be the hit that shakes him out of his anti-redskin mood he has been in the last few years.

Or at least give him the decleating he so desperately deserves.

Brown stalling could be a good thing

I take a different view then my blogger colleagues when it comes to the Courtney Brown situation. The fact that he is taking so long in making his decision could ultimately be a good thing for the Redskins. By Brown taking so long we have been able to gleam the following things:

1.) Dan Snyder did not break the bank in his original offer to Courtney. Again for those of us who have promoted fiscal responsibility and frugalness this is nothing but a good sign. Gone are the days of breaking the budget for moderate talent. I just wish the other big man in Washington would listen to this course of logic.

2.) The Denver offer and the Redskin offer must be close in value. If one contract was demonstrably bigger then the other Brown would of made his decision already.
So how does the Redskins benefit from further delay? Now mind you this is just supposition, however I think Denver’s contract offer may guarantee more money to Brown, but Washington’s contract offer may be the more lucrative if he makes his incentives. Denver would probably offer him a starting position, in Washington he would have to compete. And of course there is the Lavar factor. Lavar is lobbying hard for Brown to rejoin him in the capitol and hlp him revive his career.

The longer Brown waits perhaps the more likely he will spurn the bigger money and come to DC.

The Most Hated Ex-Redskin

Many people have Laveraneus Coles on top of their most hated ex-Redskin. Others point to Deion Sanders. I have a new nominee for this distinguished honor and he is now my personal choice for the award…..Champ Bailey.

Champ left the Redskins in a blockbuster trade last year, turning down one of the most lucrative contracts the Redskins had ever offered. But that was not enough for Champ. So after placing the Franchise Tag on him the Redskins continued to negotiate but to no avail. Instead of just making him play for the tag Snyder traded him to a team he professed to love, allowed him to negotiate with Denver during the trade, and spoke highly of him throughout the process.

How does Champ repay the Redskins? First he pour poison inton the ear of Fred Smoot which I believe led to him not signing the contract offer we put in front of him this year. Read the interviews, Smoot is always talking about how he talked to Champ last night and he said the Skins don’t want him. This aleinated Smoot from the skins and allowed him to sign a deal in Minnesota for not much more then was offered in DC. Now comes news that Champ is talking to Courtney Brown and trying to dissuade him from signing with the Redskins by trashing the organization.

I just hope when we go to Denver this year they bring Champ in on offense and throw a screen pass to him. I would love Lavar and Taylor to smack him so hard it will make him sterile. Later on Moss can burn him for a long touchdown.

Champ…you are ruining the goodwill you had with the fans here in DC and are proving to be more of Chump.

Vision Quest: Pre-Draft Roster Analysis: OFFENSE

Free agency is starting to wind down as does the cold and bitter days of March. The usual spending spree that the Redskin fans are accustomed to was absent. The biggest fireworks the Redskins seemed to muster were a replacement at Center, Casey Rabach, and a small wide receiver, David Givens, who happens to have 3 super bowl rings. The Moss for Coles trade and the departure of Smoot and Pierce have many fans looking for better days.

And now we come upon the draft, merely 5 weeks away. The guessing has already begun. Pick a cornerback, pick a wide receiver, trade down and get more picks, pick best available. The suggestions on the message boards and among the experts are varied and in many cases without any substantive analysis of the teams needs or the talent likely to be available.

A good first step when preparing for the draft is to establish where you are. Even in this relatively stable off season there are many changes that have taken place in our team. People coming back from injury and players maturing will always change your roster from year to year regardless of new players added or subtracted.

So with that in mind it is time to review the positions on Offense, Defense, and Special teams. This week we will focus on the Offense

OFFENSE

Overview: The 2004-05 season started with a bang for the Redskin offense. Early in the first game of the season Clinton Portis took an off tackle run 54 yards for a touchdown. Redskin fans were exuberant and immediately thought of the Glory days. However that dream was quickly ended. The Redskin offense performed poorly for most of the season, with very few bright spots. In deed poor quarterback play, line problems, play calling, dropped passes, and uninspired play dominated most of the season. The Redskins have set a priority of re-tooling the offense and acquiring the free agents to make it run properly. (Note players with an * bolded and in italics are new free agent pickups this year).

Position Analysis

Quarterbacks

Projected Starter: Patrick Ramsey

Notable Bench: Mark Brunell, Tim Hasslebeck

Analysis: This is Patrick Ramsey’s year. The chant has been heard on message boards and Redskin Park lately. And I agree it is Patrick’s year; I just don’t know what he is going to do with it. There is no doubt that the offense looked better under Ramsey then under Brunell. During the end of the year there were moments that made real believers out of some fans, only to be crushed the next game. For example after the second Giants game many were holding out hopes of a playoff spot, however this was dashed when Ramsey threw a red zone interception while driving for the winning touchdown against Philadelphia.
For the Redskins to get better Ramsey must mature in a hurry. He will be in his third year and will enter camp as the starter. Ramsey has the arm to be a successful quarterback. However his footwork and decision making needs to improve. The Redskin season will depend on Ramsey’s play and there is no plan B.
Mark Brunell will serve as the primary backup and Tim Hasselbeck is slated at the 3rd string. Brunell was just plain horrible last year. Many, including Joe Gibbs, blame some of his problems on the poor overall play of the offense, however even accounting for that it is unlikely Brunell will regain starting form. If Ramsey plays horribly the Redskins may switch to Brunell, which will signal another poor Season for the Redskins. Hasselbeck is probably our smartest QB, and definitely the one with the hottest wife, however he does not have an NFL caliber arm and is an emergency starter at best.

Draft Outlook: This is Ramsey’s year and a first day pick at quarterback is highly unlikely. However the Redskins would be smart to look at a value pick at QB in the 4th or 6th rounds. Ramsey’s contract runs through the 2006-07 season. It is unlikely that Brunell will remain on the squad past June 1, 2006. Whether Ramsey looks good or not the Redskins need to either groom a successor or prepare a rookie to be a backup QB. Whoever the pick will be would have to battle Hasselbeck for the 3rd spot or possibly be assigned to the practice squad for a year.


Running Back

Projected Starter: Clinton Portis

Notable Backups: Ladell Betts, John Simon, Rock Cartwright

Analysis: Clinton Portis came to Washington in one of the most sensational trades in franchise and NFL history. A rising star in the NFL many believed this would be the signature move of the Dan Snyder era. The jury is still out however, but not because of Portis. Portis put up impressive running numbers last year, 1315 yards & 5 tds. Portis came within 100 yards of the Redskin franchise record. He also contributed 40 catches for 235 yards and 2 more tds. Clinton did everything asked of him, he blocked he ran he caught passes and is one of the most supportive players of the Gibbs coaching staff.
There are lingering questions with Clinton though. For the third straight year Portis missed the final games of the regular season injured and unable to play. He also dropped from his career average of over 5 yards per carry to 3.8. Certainly poor line play can be blamed for the drop in production; however the injury bug leaves me to question his durability.
Ladell Betts did very well in spot relief and when starting the last game. On the season he had 371 rushing yards with a 4.1 ypc and a TD. Betts is a good changeup back from Portis. Betts is definitely a more straight ahead power blocker. He seemed to have solved his injury problem from the first two seasons as well. If the Redskins can incorporate a 70-30 mix with CP and Betts they can keep both fresh and low on the wear and tear. Betts should get more looks in short yardage situations as well.
Rock Cartwright served as 3rd string back all year long but only got 2 carries for 0 yards. Rock was the feel good story of the last training camp, converting from full back to play tail back in the Gibbs system, losing 20 pounds, and also overcoming his Mother’s death. We were all pulling for him to make the team and he did. There is no guarantee this year. He did play on special teams and that should help. John Simon spent the entire season on injured reserve. He has value as a kick returner and special teams player but is a long shot to make the squad.

Draft Outlook: This is probably the most complete unit on the team. I disagree that the Redskins need to draft a large back for short yardage situations. Improved line play and the emergence of Betts can fill that hole. If not, the Skins should look at Cartwright who led the league in 3rd and 1 conversions in 03-04. Also slow big backs can be found as a UFA. If the Redskins spend a draft pick on a RB then it is wasted and frivolous.


Wide Receiver

Projected Starters: Santana Moss*, David Patten*

Notable Backups: James Thrash, Taylor Jacobs, Darnerian McCants

Analysis: This squad had the most turnover in the off-season. Laveraneus Coles was traded in the off season for Santana Moss and Rod Gardner was allowed to seek a trade. So with both of last year’s starters gone there is a notable deficiency and a cause for concern. Even before the Coles trade the Redskins had identified this as an area of need and it would be addressed in free agency.
Enter David Patten. David has spent the last few years in New England collecting 3 super bowl rings. Last year he amassed 44 catches for 800 yards averaging 18.2 yards per catch. He will line up opposite Santana Moss, who had 45 catches for 838 yards averaging 18.6 yards per catch. The Redskins got smaller and faster at wide out in the hopes of taking advantage of the new NFL contact rules and connect on a few more homerun plays. No one can argue that either Patten or Moss is a replacement for Coles (although Coles injury made dilute his overall worth). However together they are an overall improvement in the wide out department.
Taylor Jacobs came on strong at the end of the season and should have the inside track as the #3 wide out. Thrash will be mainly a special teams player but will get rotations at wide receiver if nothing else for his veteran presence and precise rout running ability. The x-factor has to be McCants. DMAC showed promise in 03-04 however barely got on the field on 04-05. Whether it was bad practice habits, unwillingness to play special teams, or personality conflicts he sat most of the year. Gibbs has said McCants is in the plans for 2005. McCants is the last big strong WR on the team. I have said before he could be the phoenix rising from his own ashes of this season. HE could conceivably even battle for a starting spot. It will be in McCants hands, quite literally.

Draft Outlook: This may be the hardest position to decide the outlook on because the Redskins could do just about anything from making it their highest draft pick to not drafting one at all. The Redskins hold the #9 pick and it may be hard to pass up Mike Williams or Braylon Edwards if he is available. However with 5 wide receivers capable of filling roster spots on the team it could be viewed as a luxury pick. McCants and Jacobs have the most to lose if the team picks a wide receiver high. The team could also bring in a few UFAs to compete for a roster spot. In my opinion the Redskins would be better off addressing other needs with their draft picks but I could not blame them if they used #9 for Mike Williams if he is available.

H-Back

Projected Starter: Chris Cooley

Notable Bench: Mike Sellers

Analysis: Contrary to popular opinion, H-back and TE are not the same thing. H-back is a hybrid position combining fullback, tight end and wide receiver. Usually a smaller tight end with great receiving and moderate blocking skills with a great football IQ will fill this role. Chris Cooley is the prototypical H0back for the Gibbs offense. He is comfortable lining upon wide, as a 2nd TE, or in the backfield. He picks up blitzes, opens up holes for the running game and catch passes in the flats and on post routes. Cooley really came on strong at the end of last year and showed why Gibbs traded up to get him last year at the cost of this year’s 2nd round pick. Cooley will be the full time starter from day 1 of pre-season and could put up some decent numbers and be a favorite target in the end zone.
Mike Sellers is a bruising blocker who excels in the fullback portion of the h-back role. He could fill in for Cooley and even play with him in goal line situations. Sellers also excels on special teams, but has a perceived problem with personal fouls. If he becomes a mark for referees next year he could become a flag magnet.

Draft Outlook: There is no need to address this unit during the draft, and apparently no desire. Look for the Redskins to try and get a couple of smallish tight ends and larger fullbacks as UFA and convert them to H back to compete for the third string spot.


Tight End

Projected Starter: Robert Royal

Notable Bench: Dan Goodspeed, Jabrari Holloway, Kori Dickerson

Analysis: They all stink. Seriously this is the worst unit on the entire team and I refuse to be nice about it. At the beginning of last season the Redskins signed Walter Rasby as their TE. After proving he was a less then average blocker and terrible receiver they cut him loose and went with Robert Royal. Now I know there are a ton of Robert Royal fans out there because he caught a few touchdown passes down the stretch. This just shows you how pervasive fantasy football has become in our football fan base. TD catches are not the end all of receiving, and definitely not a stat you should judge the tight end position on.
To see how bad the Redskins are you must ask yourself this question “Would Robert Royal start on any other team in the NFL?” The answer is a “HELL NO!!!!!” Not only would he not start I would imagine he may not even make the squad on ½ of the clubs. He is a below average blocker and only an average receiver. Yes he caught 4tds, but he also only caught 8 catches total on the entire year. In fact he had no more then 1 catch in any game last year. That’s right folks. 1 catch a game.
If our starter is bad our backups are horrible. None of these guys would even make an NFL squad. Goodspeed is big but he was cut from training camp last year. Holloway was a cast off of Houston and has not played since 2003. Dickerson also has not played since 2003. In the Gibbs offense where tight end play is extremely important in both pass protection and run blocking this is not a good situation.

Draft outlook: I don’t know how the Redskins can not address this on the first day of the draft. Some say we are fine with Royal and we should get a “slobberknocker” TE late in the draft and rotate him. I just can not agree here. You need a full time starter who can block and catch. There is no better prospect out there then Heath Miller. Miller is a prototypical Gibbs type player. Smart as hell, can block (won offensive lineman of the week honors 13 times in his college career and is only a junior), and is a remarkable pass catcher. However taking Miller at #9 seems like a bit of a reach and The Redskins could explore trade down options, but not too low. Miller will go in the first round. IF Miller is not available we should look for a TE in the 3rd round that will take over for Royal full time.

Offensive Line

Projected Starters: Chris Samuels (LT), Derrick Dockery (LG), Casey Rabach (C)*, Randy Thomas (RG), Jon Jansen (RT)

Notable Bench: Ray Brown (T), Jim Molinaro (G/T), Mark Wilson (G/T), Lennie Friedman (G/C), Cory Raymer (C)

Analysis: This is a true rags to riches situation. Or at least it should be. Last year Jon Jansen’s season ending injury was a large blow to this offensive line. The unit’s most effective run blocker and psychological leader never played a down for the Redskins and was missed sorely. The offense was designed to run over Jansen’s side and impose their will, and it never recovered. Jansen has fully recovered from his injury and should be an unstoppable force this next season.
The RT position was not the only one in flux though. The Center position was under fire all year long. Lennie Freidman started at center and had snap exchange problems. Cory Raymer took over starting position ¼ of the way through the season. You remember Raymer don’t you? He was the first lineman on his arse after every play. Is it any wonder we were so horrible on goal line and 3rd and short situations? Enter Casey Rabach who played center all last year for Baltimore and helped anchor one of the best rush offense in the country. Rabach is a definite upgrade in the Center of the line.
Samuels played well and better do so again this year. He received the highest signing bonus in Redskin history this off season in restructuring his contract. Derrick Dockery showed flashes of brilliance last year and really needs to be solid this year to keep the coaches from re-examining the position. Randy Thomas played well despite little help to his right last year and could regain his pro-bowl form.
On the bench Wilson and Molinaro are young and learning. These are Bugle project players and could give solid depth this year. The Ancient Ray Brown is back and he is our security blanket. If he is starting though we are in trouble. Friedman and Raymer may become cuts if some young linemen appear in the draft.

Draft outlook: Look for the Redskins to address this unit in the second day in the draft. This is a perfect 6th or 7th round pick for a combo guard/center. If that happens watch for either Raymer or Friedman or both to be let go.

Vision Quest: An Analysis of Free Agency: Week 2

Well the second week of free agency for the Redskins was a quiet time. An expected departure, a questionable re-signing, and restraint was the order of the day. It was not the best week for Redskin faithful, but may ultimately prove fruitful towards building a winning team. For now though we can only judge the individual moves.

Redskins resign Mike Sellers. Pure special teams players are hard to come by in the NFL. Especially ones who can conceivably play a position. The theory here is Mike Sellers can play H back and start on all the special teams units. I don’t buy it though. Last year Sellers started at H back but eventually gave way to Cooley. Part of the reason for that is Sellers has a penchant for personal fouls. Even on special teams he seemed to get flagged a lot. I would of rather kept this spot open for a UFA or a low round draftee. However the contract was cheap and perhaps veteran leadership on special teams will provide Danny Smith the stability he wished for last year. I give this just a merely passing grade of C.

Resigning of DT Cedric Killings. Uhm who cares. Seriously though at best this is a reserve signing. It is a veteran minimum contract and could be a casualty cut if the Redskins draft a promising young DT. I will give it a passing grade if only out of lack of caring about it all. So I grade it a C.

Losing Fred Smoot. Even though I expected this in my head, my heart hoped it would not happen. I believed Smoot when he said he wanted to be a Redskin and that if it came down to a couple of million he would stay here. Well it did come down to couple of million, and only 800k off on the signing bonus, and he left anyways. Going to the Vikings of all places. A team rich in playoff losses and lack of success. A team that just traded away its only superstar. A team that lead by a head coach with no imagination nor insight, who only keeps from getting fired because he costs so little to keep. That same head coach is now dipping his fingers into his player’s pockets. And an owner selling his team to another owner who might not even have the financial discipline to run an NFL franchise. Is it any question that the Vikings are on the way down, not up?

But I cannot blame this all on the Smoot. The Redskins have some fault here as well. The Redskins, unlike the Pierce deal, should have wrapped this up in pre-season last year. We knew during training camp we wanted to keep Smoot, we did not know that about Pierce. If we offered Smoot the same contract Springs signed then he might have took it. We also had the salary cap space to do it as well. We were hesitant for whatever reason and allowed him to hit the market. Pierce was a one-year wonder and never warranted an extension before the season, Smoot did.

I cannot give this one a passing grade. I admire the fiscal restraint but the Front office missed this one. They did not miss by much and it almost worked the way they thought it would. However it still comes down to the fact that #21 is now in purple. The best I can grade this is a D-.

The emergence of the Gibbs Free Agent Philosophy. This is important and often missed part of the off-season. Many sports writers and NFL “experts” stated that Gibbs would not be able to adjust to the Salary Cap or free agency. However Gibbs may have brought a new take on free agency, one that might revolutionize the NFL itself.

Gibbs has brought a simple concept back to the NFL. It is a two-fold strategy to guide free agent acquisitions as well as resigning our own players. The Redskins will not over pay a lesser player at the cost of signing two or more others and nor will they bend to the market wishes an pay less talented players more then the talent they already have at the same position. This is the first time since the advent of Free Agency that the Redskins actually have a plan in Free Agency. We are no longer just writing blank checks one year and abstaining the next. Snyder is no longer playing King Lear and doling out precious Salary Cap space to unneeded and over heralded free agents. We have a plan and the will it seems to stick to this plan.

But any plan comes with it tough decisions. We had two this year, Smoot and Pierce. Smoot wanted to be paid more then Shawn Springs who by all account was the better CB. Pierce also had a desire to be paid more then Marcus Washington, a much better LB then him. Adherence to our plan cost us Smoot and Pierce, but it gained us much more. Now Springs and Washington will not in the near future hold out for contract extensions. They also know their worth to our team and will be easier to resign when the time comes.

I do have some reservations on this plan. Salaries increase each year and contracts signed even the previous year can be obsolete by the following year. There are also players like Lavar Arrington and Sean Taylor that deserve more then the others at their position. However I feel that Gibbs will make the proper exceptions to his own rule. For giving us our first real free agency plan in franchise history I have to give Gibbs and the front office a grade of A.

The apparent Non-release of Darnerian McCants. I debated whether or not to include this, as it is not a typical free agency move, but rather a non-move. At the end of last season I think most people, including DMAC himself, thought he was a goner. After a promising season in 2003, he fell out of favor in 2004 when his practice habits and rumored refusal to play special teams landed him on the inactive list more often then not. However DMAC may now be the phoenix that rises from the fire. With mostly smallish speed receivers on the roster he may have the opportunity to become a possession receiver for us, perhaps even start in 3 WR sets. During the Patten news conference Gibbs stated that they would not be moving McCants and that he is “in the picture”. This proves Gibbs and company do not make rash decisions as was thought by some on the Coles trade. Working with a disgruntled receiver who had more cause to complain then Coles did shows just how temperate Gibbs and the front office can be. We also get the big body to compliment Patten and Moss. If this pans out it will be the biggest non-move of the off-season. For patience and the foresight to see the need for a big receiver the Redskins get a B.

Coles vs. Moss part two. I know I touched on this trade in my last article but I feel the need to speak more. Coles had his press conference with NY this week and like a child caught with his hand in the cookie jar was arrogant and defiant. Menawhile Moss was gracious and eloquent in his press conference with us. Now comes word that many of the Jets medical officials have doubt about Coles toe. I am not surprised. I think I will have to upgrade the original grade on this trade. About week 5 of next season Jets fans are going to be wondering how they got saddled with this malcontent while Moss is streaking down the field in Burgundy & Gold. So I will upgrade this trade from a B to a B+.

Overall Free Agency Grade. We lost some ground this week with the Smoot departure. I think it was the right thing to do but it could have been prevented. So if only for that our grade must drop. However we have done well this period overall. As of right now I must drop the overall, grade from B+ to B.

What is next on the Horizon? There are rumors that when Courtney Brown is cut from Cleveland the Redskins might give him a chance. If brown gets a vet minimum contract or even one as high as the contract we gave Phillip Daniels this could be a good signing. The Gardner trade needs to happen soon, and probably will once Plaxico Burress finds a home. Lastly the Ray Brown resigning should take place soon as well. It is a little odd that it has taken so long since both sides have said they want it to get done. The draft awaits us after that.

Vision Quest: An Analysis of Free Agency Week 1

On the eve of Free Agency I was going to write an article about the sorry state of the Redskins situation. You see even I had been sucked in by the Free Agency periods of years past. I was looking forward to Redskin one flying from city to city picking up free agents left and right, dropping 8 figure signing bonus wherever they touched down. Players were lining up to get on board and be whisked away to the Capitol for a highly touted press conference.

But not this year. The front office and Joe Gibbs had already indicated that Redskin one was temporarily grounded this year. The Redskins were going after modest free agents and not big splashes. They were content on resigning their free agents and targeting specific needs. A sound plan and one I personally advocated a few short weeks ago.

However even those plans were in jeopardy. Chris Samuels contract extension, essential for creating the needed cap room. Fred Smoot and Antonio Pierce, 2 essential cogs in our top-notch defense were on their way out the door. Players and their agents were using Washington’s name in hopes of getting better contracts elsewhere. And when it couldn’t get worse Laveranues Coles, who had at first demanded his release, sabotaged a trade to the Jets. I was so pessimistic I decided to postpone writing an article for one week.

This was the winter of our discontent.

What a difference a week makes. The day before free agency Chris Samuels agreed to a contract extension that not only frees up valuable cap room this season but next year as well. This allowed for the signings of Casey Rabach (C) and David Patten (WR) to fill major needs on offense. And although Pierce is now residing in another NFC East team but Smoot remains unsigned and every day another team does not offer him a contract is a another day closer to the eventuality he will resign with the Redskins. And lastly we finally traded the disgruntled Coles to the Jets for Santana Moss in the very trade that was sabotaged less then two weeks ago.

It is times like this I remember that it is better when you trust in Joe Gibbs. The moves this week deserve both credit and in some cases criticism as well. Each move deserves to be looked at individually, and so I will.

Chris Samuels contract extension. This may be seen as a necessary evil by some or a large success by others. In either case the move cleared a large amount of salary cap space both this year and next. With over a nine million dollar cap hit this year and 12 million next something had to be done. By giving out the largest signing bonus in Redskins history (15.75 million) we have inexorably tied the future at Left tackle for the Redskins to Chris Samuels. This will provide stability and spending freedom for the next 4-5 years. This also means we are stuck with Chris Samuels for that time period as well. If this is the Chris Samuels of 2002 or even 2004 then this will be a great deal. If we get the Chris Samuels of 2003, then we might be in trouble here. Overall though it is a good move and I give it a B+.

Resigning Joe Salave’a. This may be the most unheralded part of the last week, however this is a key reacquisition. Much has been written about how Greg Williams ran a great defense with a bunch of no names on the defensive line. However this is not exactly true. What we actually had was a bunch of over-achieving individuals willing to work as a team to get the job done. Joe was a large part of that. He is our second best defensive tackle and started nine games. This will allow GW to use him in a rotation with Brandon Noble opposite Griffin and occupy blockers freeing our linebackers, and frustrate the opposing running game. This would normally be only a C+ signing but since it represents a resigning of a productive Redskin, something our team does not do enough of. That brings this grade to a B+.

Signing Casey Rabach. One of the biggest reasons our offense stalled last year is poor interior line play, most notably at Center. Casey should fill that position just fine. He started the season in Baltimore as a reserve but was an injury replacement and started the rest of the season. He was so impressive that when the original player was healthy enough to reclaim his role they stuck with Rabach. He is smart and can make the right calls as well. His signing will allow Cory Raymer to join Lennie Freidman, Jim Molinaro, Mark Wilson, and possibly Ray Brown serve as backups. The contract was very cheap as well. This is an easy A.

Resigning Ethan Albright. If the Salave’a resigning was overlooked, this was practically invisible. Of course the position of long snapper often is. But then again if you are noticing a long snapper then they are probably doing something wrong. Albright has been solid and dependable and I cannot remember any botched snaps in the past few years. Plus you got to like the way the red hair looks in a Redskin uniform. Overall grade is a B.

Losing Antonio Pierce to the NY Giants. It is hard to get a passing grade when you lose your starting Middle Linebacker to another team. Even harder when he was homegrown talent that you just discovered the previous year. Even harder still when he was one of your top targets at resigning. And almost impossible when you lose him to an NFC East rival. However I am inclined to agree with the Redskins decision here. Antonio Pierce was talented and I would love to have him back, but the contract the Giants offered to him was just too rich for my blood. He is a solid linebacker with talent, not just a product of a system, however the system had a lot to do with his success. He will be decent with the Giants but I would venture to say he won’t be missed around Redskins Park. Lemar Marshall has already been tapped as heir apparent and Clifton Smith could give him a run for his money. And who knows maybe Mr. Miyagi can come and work wonders on Barrow’s knee. However this is a loss for the Redskins so I can only give it a grade of C.

Signing David Patten. This is a big get for the Redskins. You may remember a few weeks ago I wrote an article stating that the Redskins should look to New England for their pattern to success. I didn’t mean it so literally but I am happy with the results. David Patten is a fast small wide receiver that may flourish in Washington. More importantly he brings 3 rings with him into a locker room. Most of the Redskins players have not been on a winning Redskin squad, or at least not since 1999. This is just as much a character sign as an upgrade at wide receiver. Patten is on the other side of 30 and did disappear at times last year, but overall this is a great sign. I give this a healthy A.

Trading Coles for Santana Moss. This is the biggest move yet of the off-season and the one with the most ramifications for next season and the future. The Redskins wanted to get value for Coles, and they did in Santana Moss. Moss in my opinion is just as good a receiver as Coles, especially since the toe injury. He also wants to be in D.C., and that is very important. This trade comes at a high price for the Redskins though. Not only do they have a large cap hit this year, Coles did not agree to forego the deferred salary bonus due to him on April 1st. That means not only will the Redskins take a large cap hit this year, almost negating the savings from the Samuels restructuring, they will not receive and added cap rebate in 2006. However Santana Moss averaged over 18 yards a catch last year, as did David Patten. That puts two of the 5 receivers in the NFL to average over 18 ypc in Burgundy and Gold. They are both small but the new NFL rules about contact will only stand to benefit them. This is a great move but the large cap hit devalues it. Overall grade is a solid B.

Overall. This was a very good first week of free agency for the Redskins. They upgraded the wide receiver position, got rid of a possible cancer, resigned a couple of unheralded solid performers, upgraded at Center, made cap space (then lost some of it), and stayed fiscally responsible. I admire the new thinking at Redskins Park. They have made some shrewd moves and kept in mind the future as well as the current season. Not quite the explosion out of the gate that we are used to, but that is better overall. Overall grade for the Redskins FO, a solid respectable B+.

Things to look for in week 2. The resigning of Smoot has to be tops on the list of things to do this week. Second on the list is the Rod Gardner trade. These two things might be linked because of the limited cap space Washington now has. Besides those two things we may not see much else for the Redskins this off-season. Some value signings as well as our RFA’s signing and the Redskins will stand pat until the draft.